AL WEST
(Listed in
Order of 2003 Finish)
ED: Ed Agner
BB: Bill Barnwell
PR: Phil Rippa
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
2003
Record: 96-66 (Lost in ALDS)
Key
Additions: Arthur Rhodes, Eric Karros, Mark Kotsay, Bobby Kielty, Mark
Redmond, Chris Hammond, Damian Miller
Key
Losses: Miguel Tejada, Keith Foulke, Jose Guillen, Ted Lilly, Terrence
Long, Ramon Hernandez, John Halama, Steve Sparks, Mark Ellis thanks to
Bobby Crosby
BB: Moneyball's such a useless,
out-of-date book now. Paul DePodesta's gone, Jeremy Brown is thin (er -
re-proportioned), Scott Hatteberg is overappreciated, and the A's value
fielding over walks. I'll devote some more time to that later on.
PR: Well, Chad Bradford is still
funky and effective and they got rid of that Hernandez fella. How dare
he bunt!
ED: I finally saw DePodesta. He was
EXACTLY as I pictured him. All he needed was a Primer t-shirt to be the
ULTIMATE babe magnet.
PR: I am glad that was less
disillusional for you then when I heard Bill Simmons speak for the
first time. That made me sad.
ED: It's hard to talk like a man
when your back's all screwed up from forcing yourself to laugh at all
those really-really-really-really bad Jimmy Kimmel jokes.
BB: I'm not so sold on Bobby
Crosby; in fact, I'm not very sold on the A's ability to produce
position players. They did produce Tejada, Chavez, and Giambi. The tier
below that has Ramon Hernandez and Mark Ellis (and maybe Bobby Crosby).
And that's about it. A short list of the guys who have either not
developed, performed below what would be expected based upon some of
their minor league numbers, or have regressed since coming to the A's
at a young age:
- Ben Grieve
- Ryan Christenson
- Jose Ortiz
- Esteban German
- Mario Encarnacion
- Jeremy Giambi
- Adam Piatt
- Terrence Long
- Mario Valdez
BB: I could definitely see Crosby
becoming a solid player, but I could also see him becoming Jose Ortiz,
too; Ortiz, at age 23 in Sacramento, hit .351/.405/.575. Crosby, at age
23 in Sacramento, hit .308/.398/.544. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA
comparables are mostly pretty weak (Chris Gomez, Kevin Elster, Rafael
Ramirez, Jeff Blauser, Benji Gil), with some weird positive ones thrown
in (Kevin McReynolds!). The #2 most comparable player they list is Jay
Bell circa 1990; I think the A's would be pretty happy with that.
PR: Heck, they would take Jay Bell
circa 1999 in a heartbeat. (.289/.374/.557). Man, Jay Bell was an
underrated player. Now he is on the Mets and stinks. That's a surprise
to no one. Okay, back to the Athletics.
ED: I believe Jay is done now. But
yeah, what you said.
PR: Well, Crosby is already making
an impact (no pun intended). His collision with Mark Ellis has knocked
Ellis out for the entire year (so many ugly injuries on one little
body.) It is going to be interesting to see what the As cook up to fill
the gap at second. Esteban German is right there but Oakland seems
hesitant to give him the job. I am not sure if there is anyone else
floating around out there.... wait, JAY BELL! Perfect!
BB: Poor Marco Scutaro.Third best
hitter in the International League last year (.311/.406/.520!!) and no
one’s said word one about even considering giving him the job.
ED: I actually appreciate Redman,
but I recognize that Lilly will be better. I understand moving Lilly
for Kielty. I don't understand the Redman love when John Halama WAS
right there. Of course, I am a sad Halama fan. Sue me. But hey, looking
at some of the crud the A's have carried at the back-end of that
rotation the past few years and I realize it doesn't much matter. Of
course, the A's have declined offensively since then, but...still.
PR: In the mlb.com article about
the Devil Rays cleaning house, it was actually mentioned that Halama
might not actually make the 25 man roster – which is a fiasco in and of
itself. But when Rich Harden blows up, I think Halama would be the
perfectly acceptable cheap roster filler.
ED: One day I will win the lottery
and buy the Expos and move them to...wherever someone will take them.
Oh yeah. I will sign Halama, bring back Seiguignol to add to Nick and
Randy Choate. Gah, OK. BRING BACK Randy Choate now. I will
still lose a billion games of course, but I will be happy.
BB: Halama's career ERAs run 5.85,
4.22, 5.08, 4.73, 3.56, 4.22. He's struck out 4.95/9 and has a 1.74
K/BB ratio. I mean – I am very much the kind of person who attaches
themselves to lost causes (ask me about John Stephens sometime), but
nothing about Halama screams "100 innings" to me.
ED: *sigh* Don't confuse me with
facts, Bill.
BB: Giving Mark Redman $13m or so
for 3 years seems like a weird move to me, considering the A's will
have Hudson, Zito, Mulder, Harden, and Blanton ready by the end of this
season. I would guess that either Redman is being kept as trade bait,
or he'll end up being Hudson's replacement after Hudson goes to the
Yankees in free agency. I shed a simple single tear for the chairs
whose future lie in the offices of William Beane, the Handsomest GM in
Baseball.
PR: You are forgetting though that
the hip, cool thing to spout off is that Barry Zito stinks now. Just
look at the numbers man. Stinky! Stinky! STINKY!
ED: Aww, now Zito's numbers stink
as much as his taste in music. HOOHAH! But man, that's some purty hair.
ED: I can see Hudson being done in
Oakland soon - if for no other reason than the workload he's taken on.
On the whole, the A's are still the A's. Someone's gotta win the
division and they'll have plenty of pitching, catch enough balls and
get just barely enough offense to hold off the rest of the flawed
division. I REALLY don't like their shot in the post-season though.
PR: Bill knows how to write for my
enjoyment. I am a huge Tim Hudson fan so I love the idea of him putting
on pinstripes. There will be plenty of room for him when Kevin Brown
cripples himself again.
PR: Maybe Bill with his youth and
firmer grasp on sabermetrics can explain the Arthur Rhodes signing
though. I mean Primer confused the heck out of me last year. First
Rhodes was terrible. And then he was the next Sparky Lyle when the
Yanks traded him away and then he was just comic PVC material. Did
Billy accidentally crack a chair over his own head? Oakland blows
enough playoff games without needing to import Rhodes to do the dirty
deed.
BB: Maybe he can get a good deal on
chains in Oakland or something. I'm gonna write a nice little treatise
on the A's sometime in the near future, and I'll cover the pen.
PR: Did we also just violate some
MLB bylaws by not stating that the “A’s will never survive without a
new stadium”? Is this what keeps me from joining the fraternity?
Ummm... I can fix that. “Small Market bad. Puerto Rico Expos. Portland
Expos. The Washington DC/Baltimore corridor can’t support two teams. A
thousand points of light. Lockbox.”
ED: New stadium?
Pheh! The A's just need to take a cure from my beloved Raiders
and threaten to move to LA or something. Then A's can get
whatever they want. It works for Al every 10 or so years.
Of course, considering the state of the Raider organization now, it's
probably best that no one takes any cues from Al Davis. Stupid
football!
SEATTLE MARINERS
2003 Record –
93-69
Key Additions: Raul Ibanez, Eddie Guardado, Rich Aurilia, Scott
Spiezio, Ron Villone, Terry Mulholland, Quinton McCracken, Kevin
Jarvis, Ramon Santiago, Miguel Tej.... WHOOPS!
Key Losses: Rey Sanchez, Mike Cameron, Arthur Rhodes, Kazuhiro Sasaki,
Mark McLemore, Armando Benitez, Jeff Cirillo, Greg Colbrunn, Carlos
Guillen
BB: God, is this an unexciting
team. Sure - Rafael Soriano will be fantastic, if he can stay healthy.
Edgar Martinez seems convinced that he should keep playing until it's a
year too late. Raul Ibanez has all kinds of moxie or whatever. This
team has all kinds of veteran presence and a whole lot of potential to
go 81-81. I could definitely see the bottom falling out of the Mariners
and them finishing in last.
PR: Yeah, this offseason wasn't as
spiffy as Seattle wanted it to be now was it. Everyday Eddie will be
filling in for the crippled Kaz. But I missed the part where Shigetoshi
Hasegawa failed miserably at the closer job. Oh that's right, he
didn't. I mean what more did the team want him to do? But instead they
paid more to bring in Guardado to be the closer.
ED: Courtesy of BabelFish - In
Japanese Shigetoshi Hasegawa means "veteran reliever without the magic
CLOSER~! aura."
PR: Of course this is the same
organization that gave Rich Aurilia over $6 million for this season. I
am sure Rich is all sorts of giddy about his dwindling offensive
numbers are going to look like at Safeco.
BB: The regard that people hold
Rich Aurilia in astonishes me. Aurilia's OPS+ for his career (skipping
his 19 AB rookie season): 60, 113, 93, 106, 104, 148, 95, 91. What you
have here is a slightly above-average hitter (even with the monster
season, his career OPS+ is 105) and fielder who, through one year,
became regarded as one of the top offensive shortstops in the National
League. Aurilia has what would be considered a "strikingly close" comp
amongst his PECOTA comparables: 2000 Vinny Castilla. Castilla hit
.221/.254/.308 that year. Yep.
ED: Well, being one of the top
offensive shortstops in the NL is...not...that...difficult. Being able
to brag about being a better hitter than Rey Ordonez is like harping
about being the brains in the Devil Ray organization.
PR: I mean, they still have the
money they saved with Kaz Sasaki hightailing it back to Japan. I swear
I have read 101 different scenarios on how the Mariners were going to
use that cash. Still haven't pulled the trigger on anything.
BB: I'm just gonna say I really,
really think Mario Party 6 is going to be fantastic.
ED: Will ICHIRO~! be a Mario
sidekick?
PR: I do have this weird affection
for Seattle in that – outside of Larry Walker – they have the giant
collection of really old white guys who I have always liked. John
Olerud, Jamie Moyer. Heck, throw in Edgar too. It's a nice reminder of
baseball when I was a teenager but at some point, someone has to
realize that the best strategy isn't going to be propping John and his
batting helmet up at first.
ED: When I was a teenager, Jose
Canseco ruled the world. Jose would make a good addition to the M's. I
would feel so much younger if that happened. C'mon, the entire
Northwest needs to throw me that bone if for no other reason than it
being the area that gave us Courtney Love - and you can never apologize
enough for Courtney Love, can you?
PR: One of these days, Clint
Nageotte and Travis Blackley will be anchoring the M's staff and things
should get better. I am figuring that day will be sometime this season
after Moyer breaks his hip. Or when the devil comes to collect on the
soul he bought from Gil Meche (Though it is possible he collected right
around the All Star Break last year). This is the chance that it will
be the day after Freddy Garcia, and his enormous head, has his first "8
earned runs allowed over the first two innings" start.
BB: Maybe Ryan Anderson will
recover this year. Probably not.
ED: Aww, poor li'l pitching
prospect. It was better that he blew his arm out on his own before
Piniella could have done that for him.
ED: As long as I never
EVER-EVER-EVER have to see that inflated midget second baseman do his
bat flip EVER again, I really don't care about the M's whatsoever.
Inside sources tell me this is a third place team all the way.
PR: As long as I never have to hear
Bret Boone call another postseason ballgame again. Al Leiter needs to
get traded so he can take out Boone for stealing his gig. Of course,
then McCarver would frown upon this and Leiter would be all torn.
BB: I enjoy very much that Scott
Spiezio came to Seattle to publicize his band amongst the grunge scene.
I think this is one of the underrated stories of the offseason; the
idea of Spiezio leaving the Mariners in mid-roadtrip so he can get on
the Fruit Bats tour or something might be the highlight of this
Mariners season. I think if I was to project the career of Sandfrog,
their upside would probably be like house band on the Best Damn Sports
Show, providing the rimshots when Tom Arnold talks about being unable
to please Jillian Barberie or whatever. God, I hate that show.
ED: See, IIIIIII picture Spiezio as
the most devoted fan of Candlebox EVER. Oh sure, he gives the props to
MASTERS of the genre like Alice In Chains, Pearl Jam and Stone Temple
Pilots. But truly, Spiezio went to the land of flannel to restart the
Candlebox army. He knows those other bands, while mightily kicking much
ass, aren't Candlebox. No sir. Not even close. Candlebox are true
artists, a true credit to Seattle like bitchin' smack and coffee that
will keep you awake for days. It is Scott Spiezio's goal in life to
have Sandfrog open for Candlebox on the tiny-tiny-tiny-tiny stage of
Lollapalooza next year. It's the last dream he needs to come true since
he got that World Series ring in 2002 and stands no chance at all of
getting one in Seattle. CANDLEBOX!!!
ANAHEIM ANGELS
2003 Record –
77-85
Key
Additions: Kelvim Escobar, Bartolo Colon, Jose Guillen, Vladimir
Guerrero, Shane Halter
Key Losses: Brad Fullmer, Scott Spiezio, Shawn Wooten, Benji Gill
BB: I miss the old Angels - you
know, the Angels that would hang on the edge of the playoff hunt each
year, sign some irrelevant injury-prone #3 starter like Ken Hill or Tim
Belcher, and have a mediocre lineup with Tim Salmon in the middle.
PR: Wait – Aaron Sele doesn't
already qualify for that spot?
ED: I love that '95 team only
because I called that collapse in like, July of that year. I wonder if
Terry Collins and Gary DiSarcina still sit around and complain about
Jim Edmonds not being wound tight enough.
BB: There are so many weird little
aspects to the Angels nowadays that you have to look at. The Angels pen
is really a beautiful thing, with them producing all kinds of random
nobodies who blow away the Sauerbecks and Wendells of the world. With
Brendan Donnelly and Eric Gagne both following in the footsteps of Rick
Vaughn, you would think more pitchers would get the spectacles out. Me,
personally, I am waiting for Jesse Orosco to come back next year
looking like Buddy Holly. The bespectacled, decaying corpse of Buddy
Holly.
ED: I wish I had something to add
to that. But all I would do is take away from the beauty of Buddy
Orosco.
BB: There are, of course, the four
big FA signings. All of them have their flaws: Vlad's back is all kinds
of creaky (and he's 28), and I don't think his walk rate is looking
forward to talking to Mickey Hatcher. If there's any organization
that's less likely to teach plate discipline than the Expos, it's the
Angels. And the Royals, I guess.
ED: I've actually pictured Hatcher
having meeting for hitters where the scene is exactly like Glengarry
Glen Ross. You know, Mickey up there berating them that "Walks are for
SISSIES!" I see Eckstein in the Kevin Spacey Sales Manager role, pacing
around behind Hatcher, nodding his head in agreement. Obviously, I see
Troy Glaus in the Jack Lemon role all nervous about his inability to
hack at everything.
PR: Jack Lemmon, God rest his soul,
would have produced just as well as what the Angels had to play at
third base while Glaus was out. Of course, with Wooten and Spiezio gone
this year, I am expecting Anaheim management to sign Tony Danza or
Danny Glover or Christopher Lloyd or Adrian Brody or Matthew
McConaughey or Dermot Mulroney...
BB: I saw Bartolo Colon absolutely
shut down the Red Sox at Fenway last year, pitching a 3-hit CG shutout;
I also saw Bartolo eat three large pizzas at Pizzeria Uno's after he
was finished with the White Sox clubhouse spread, too. Everything about
Colon, to me at least, screams right-handed Sid Fernandez. If my hunch
is right, Colon has about two more years before things start breaking
up.
ED: Well, Sid would have to throw
his fastball 4 times to get a MPH total rivalling Colon's. But I know
what you mean. I like Colon. I've had the misfortune of seeing WAYYY
too many Indian games over the years, so I know my Colon. He's...good.
But he should be better. When he's on, you see him and think, My God,
how has he not won a Cy Young by now? Then he'll get shelled by like
Tampa Bay and you realize that this is a funny world. I agree with the
injury concerns though. I thought his arm would've been fragged long
ago thanks to Mike Hargrove's handling in his earlier years. Between
the innings pitched already and the weight issues, this seems like a
dicey signing to me. And do we have any confirmation on his age?
BB: Kelvim Escobar has a 4.58 ERA
in 800 IP, most of them coming in the 102ish PF of the Skydome. He
looks to be just about league-average; considering the Angels were
about to add Colon, and already had the
Ortiz/Washburn/Lackey/Shields/Sele group, Escobar is extraneous. I'd
rather have seen them start converting K-Rod (aww...no one remembers
the poor lil guy) to starting.
PR: Oh, I remember him alright.
Stupid illegal postseason player. Not that I am bitter or anything.
BB: Don't make me bring up the
Yankees keeping Jeff Nelson in Tampa for most of the 1998 and 1999
regular seasons.
ED: I quit giving in to the
frustration about Escobar long ago. I like him as a back of the
rotation guy, though, where he has no expectations to live down. Of
course, you don't normally give that kind of money to a back of the
rotation guy.
PR: The projected Angels rotation
is Colon, Jarrod Washburn, Escobar, John Lackey and Ramon Ortiz. That
is one big batch of question marks right there. Seriously, Ramon Ortiz
would like to have whoever stole his fastball to return it no questions
asked.
BB: I'm just happy that the Pedro
comparisons stopped once Ortiz revealed he was +4.
ED: I thought the Pedro comparisons
stopped once he started throwing more like late-period Ramon Martinez
than any-period Pedro.
BB: Jose Guillen is really the
beautiful signing for me, though - how do you sell Jose Guillen if
you're his agent? Do you start with "poor man's Raul Mondesi" and go
down from there? Or is that where you try and end up? Would you even
want the poor man's Raul Mondesi?
PR: I think you need to ask the
question this way "Would you like Raul Mondesi?"
ED: Jose Guillen was like Part #500
of Jim Bowden's Tool Fetish acquisitions of the late-90's/early-00's.
Wily Mo Pena, Ruben Mateo, Guillen, Juan Encarnacion, I'd think they
were all the same person if for not the fact that they all hogged a
spot on the Reds roster at some point in the last 3-4 years. And Reds
fans wonder why they haven't won anything since the first time the US
had troops in the Persian Gulf. I've got to admit that I am giddy about
the Angels having a TOOLS GOD~! on the same team with the SCRAP GOD~!
BB: I can't wait to watch
Angels/Mariners on a Sunday Night in May and hear Joe Morgan talk about
how the Angels signed him just to stop Ichiro from going from 1st to
3rd on a single.
ED: God. I can actually hear this
in my head. That, and Rick Sutcliffe saying the same thing. All season.
PR: There needs to be a maximum
number of Angles vs. Rangers games shown on ESPN Wednesday night
baseball. And if Chris Berman is calling them, the number needs to be
set at zero.
ED: Sleeping pills cure all that.
Or booze. Whatever.
BB: I really, really wish Disney
still owned the Angels so they could write a 'Ball Four' the
series-type comedy into ABC's Fall Schedule. This has tons of
potential: David Eckstein gets angry at the clubhouse's salsa music and
unleashes his devastating scrappiness upon Vlad...ok - maybe this has
one storyline. I would pay to see it, though.
ED: In the Midwest, the scrappy guy
would ALWAYS win out and Vlad would be traded for a bag of balls.
PR: The fact that Topps got its
scrappy white infielders confused and put Adam Kennedy on the David
Eckstein card is the greatest story that no one is talking about. This
so beats out the naughty Billy Ripken card.
ED: Oh like YOU can tell them
apart.
BB: I remember when they would show
the baseball card commercials during the playoffs last year – not for a
specific brand, but for the entire industry. That's when you know it's
time to sell big.
ED: What do you think Phil can get
for his Kevin Maas collection?
PR: I have about 18744 Phil
Plantier cards and someone owes me some loose change for them.
ED: Well, that will get ya a
can of Coke, anyway. That's more than the real Phil Plantier is
worth.
BB: The other big four of the
Angels are their four prospects: C Jeff Mathis, 1B Casey Kotchman, 3B
Dallas McPherson, and P Bobby "Big Neuge" Jenks. I have my issues with
these four guys too: Kotchman is a great hitter who can't stay healthy
(think Nick Johnson with a little more power and a lot fewer walks),
Jenks is still 2 or 3 BB/9 away from being respectable, McPherson is
buried (for now, at least) behind Troy Glaus, and, well, Jeff Mathis'
last name isn't Molina. Therefore, he can't field worth a damn.
BB: I can really see this team
winning 75 games or winning 100.
ED: I am torn on if the Angels will
be great or a great disaster. My rule of thumb in the pre-season is to
always go with the best sports cliché in the situation. So, I'm
taking the "New Owner spends too much on fragile players, team flops"
route.
TEXAS RANGERS
2003 Record –
71-91
Key
Additions: Alfonso Soriano, Jason Tyner, Brad Fullmer, Brian Jordan,
David Dellucci, Eric Young, Kenny Rogers, Jeff Nelson, Rod Barajas,
Glendon Rusch
Key Losses: Alex Rodriguez, John Thomson, Ismael Valdes, Todd Greene,
Juan Gonzalez, Rafael Palmeiro, Shane Spencer, Mike Lamb, The majority
of Alex Rodriguez's contract, Two year of Alfonso Soriano's life
BB: So...now what?
ED: Ahh, yes. I sometimes forget
that John Hart got another GM job.
BB: You're winning 70 games this
year - so you sign Jeff Nelson, Eric Young, Brian Jordan, Kenny Rogers,
and Brad Fullmer? I mean - is Tim McCarver secretly running this
organization or something?
PR: They also STILL have Chan Ho
Park, who is so going back on my Hacking Mass squad this year.
ED: I STILL cannot believe the O's
didn't sign Chan Ho just for putting that meatball on a plate for
Ripken in his...THEIR final All Star game. And if Chan Ho wasn't so
fragile, he'd be the pitching equivalent of Rey Ordonez for Hacking
Mass.
ED: I'm as much a Buck Showalter
fan as anyone. I thought he did a tremendous job with the Yanks and
D-Backs. Sure, his teams are as boring as church but he knows what he's
doing. Obviously, he has NO control over player pick-ups whatsoever.
This reeks of John Hart. Reeks-reeks-reeks.
BB: I liked R.A. Dickey as a guy
who could take a step forward this year until I read that Buck
Showalter's motto for the pitching staff this year was "Pitch to
Contact". Oh well - poor lil strikeout rate down the drain. Have fun
pitching to contact with Alfonso Soriano and a converted second baseman
behind you, buddy.
PR: I still get scared about the
whole "COME SEE THE KID WITHOUT LIGAMENTS!" vibe that Dickey has going
on. I mean look at what that got Charles Nagy later in his career.
ED: The Rangers could sell
themselves as the circus freaks of baseball. Alfonso Soriano - The
Human Fan! Brian Jordan - VETERAN CLUBHOUSE PRESENCE! Rusty Greer - The
Fall-Apart Man!
ED: I have faith that Buck will
convince Soriano to lose the infielders glove and start with shagging
balls in Center. I laughed a lot when some suggested Soriano go back to
SS. I saw him "play" SS in Columbus. I gained a new appreciation for
Derek Jeter's defense. Yeah.
PR: All of this is assuming that
Hart suddenly isn't able to swindle someone like... Kenny Williams....
into taking Soriano and umm... Brian Jordan for Magglio Ordonez and his
expiring contract. God, I just sounded like every caller I hate to Mike
and the Mad Dog. "Umm... I think the Yankees should trade for Tim
Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder for Homer Bush and a bucket of
balls."
BB: Both those trades sound like
NBA trades.
ED: I still see Soriano to the Red
Sox for BYK. OK, I wanna see that deal. So very badly.
PR: I wonder if Buck will bat
Michael Young second. The fans will appreciate the wonderful breeze
that comes from first Soriano and then Young hacking away at
everything. I guess the offense will be how times Teixeira can drive in
Blalock (or vice versa depending on the batting order).
ED: I am always excited to see the
Rangers if only to check out if Kevin Mench's head has picked up a
satellite planet yet.
PR: I feel really bad for Laynce
Nix. He probably got the most backhanded compliment of backhanded
compliments from an NL scout according to ESPN.com. "Eventually, I
think he'll be a better player than Rusty Greer, and he's that type of
player." Poor little Laynce, I wonder if he ever saw the multiple
stints on the DL coming.
ED: Well, Greer DID get the big
contract before he Albert Belle'd away the last couple of years. Too
bad Jeff Zimmerman didn't get the same pay day before his elbow
exploded.
ED: They'll be lucky to win 70. But
if Buck can start a coup and throw Hart out of there, with the decent
talent in the minors, the Rangers could be OK in '06.