AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
ED: Ed Agner
BB: Bill Barnwell
PR: Phil Rippa
TEXAS RANGERS
Record
at the All-Star Break (49-37)
First-Half
Review
BB: I think if you read our stuff
enough, you realize that we're not going to throw the "Everyone played
better because there's no superstar around! Curse that Alex Rodriguez!"
line at you for explaining how the Rangers have improved.
ED: We aren't? Aww, crap! And I was gonna bust out
lotsa love for SCRAP~! too.
PR: And I was all set to steal the Ewing Theory and everything.
BB: The thing is, though…everyone has played better, and that's how the
Rangers have improved. Michael Young's OPS has improved 97 points from
last year to the first half of this season. Hank Blalock is up 69
points. Mark Teixeira is up 112. Kevin Mench is up…3. Their catcher
situation has been effective in wildly alternating lines – Gerald Laird
hit .307/.374/.352 until he got hurt; Rod Barajas took his place and
has hit .270/.289/.530. If you weigh their OBP, as TangoTiger's (really
– I don't think people are going to take sabermetric work as seriously
if it's done by people who use their AOL names as their handles. I mean
I don't think Moneyball'd exist if it was about BJGoJayhawks as opposed
to Mr. James) research indicated to be correct, as 1.6*OBP and then
added their SLG to create the modified OPS that all the kids talk about
these days, they're basically the same hitter.
ED: I actually see Bill James' AOL name a something along the
lines of FuzzyCuddlyTeddyBear4U or something. But that's probably
a wild idea I got from a "What is your wet dream" thread over at what
once was Primer. As far as the math stuff goes...Yeah. Word
up. But where's the strange, Colorado-esque home/road splits?
BB: Only Alfonso Soriano has been disappointing, seventy points below
his previous (normal) OPS despite moving to a better ballpark.
PR: Aww… and he doesn’t even really steal bases anymore. Probably the
only area were he hasn’t suffered a drop off is striking out. 76 at the
Break (Not that he is only since Hank Blalock had 80).
ED: Well, we did find out that Soriano is actually a 29 year old
- at least - so some sort of recalibration of Soriano's expected output
should occur. A decline at 29 wouldn't be out of the question
given Soriano's comp with Juan Samuel who was pretty much done as top
tier player by 30 - if we can trust Samuel's age, of course.
PR: They haven’t gotten a ton out of Brad Fullmer either (.316 OBP) but
I think Texas is happy everyday Fullmer is still walking.
BB: The Rangers role players have also been fantastic too. David
Dellucci has 9 homers in 176 ABs. Eric Young has a .413 OBP. Laynce Nix
has 9 homers in 151 ABs. Gary Matthews Jr. has been about average and
has THE BLOODLINES!! This is one of the better benches in baseball if
the Rangers could muster another hitter up. Adrian Gonzalez? Are you
there?
ED: John Hart is the Rangers GM - for probably beyond this year
to boot, to Grady Fuson's chagrin - so JUAN Gonzalez is probably more
up the Rangers alley.
BB: Francisco Cordero is rapidly becoming a proven veteran closer –
striking out more than a guy an inning and not allowing a homer the
entire first half. Frank Francisco – which is just silly – has struck
out 32 guys in 23 innings. The rest of the pen has been effective in
short stints, including but not limited to: Ricardo Rodriguez, Brian
Shouse, Ron Mahay, Jay Powell, Armando Almanzar, Erasmo Ramirez, and
Jeff Nelson. Pretty much everyone but John Wasdin.
PR: Ron Mahay??? really??? His numbers don’t appear to be so pretty.
Yeah, his K/9 is a respectable 7.13 but he is giving up a hit an inning
and his BB/9 is 4.08. That doesn’t really cry out to me as respectable.
And I have no idea why including Mahay in that list bothered me so much.
ED: Nelson's been hurt a good deal of the first half and Jay
Powell's come down with some arm problems recently too. Doug
Brocail came out of the netherworld where old relievers go to defrag
their arms and has...well, he's VETERANNY~! Buck has to like
that, anyway. I really-really-really-really like the work Mahay
and Almanzar have done, but I wonder how long they can hold up.
BB: The biggest story with the Rangers has been Kenny Rogers' 12-3
first half. Now – again – you're a smart reader. Which one of these
doesn't belong? 117 innings pitched. 67 strikeouts. 31 walks. 4.21 ERA.
12 wins.
ED: Oh-oh! What is, Kenny Rogers knows how to win and pitch to
the score, Peter? I'll take Food Stuck In John Kruk's Jowl Flaps
for $500, please. Whoo-hoo! Baseball Tonight Jeopardy rules!
PR: Aww… and Bill didn’t even up Rogers’ home/away splits. (Let’s just
say that pitching outside of Arlington is bad news. Batters smack him
around to the tune of .302 average.) Of course, I could win 12 games
with the run support the Gambler is getting.
BB: I guess someone has to win for the Rangers, since the rest of the
rotation has basically been ineffective and/or lucky. Joaquin Benoit
has a decent K/BB ratio – 64/17 – but he's been nice enough to give up
15 home runs in 71 innings pitched.
ED: Personally, I like how Ryan Drese has comparable numbers to Rogers
yet has 8 fewer wins. And still I heard a couple of morons who
wanted Rogers to be the AS starter. Yeesh.
PR: I think Ed meant to write BETTER numbers than Rogers.
BB: Chan Ho Park is making $85,673 a game, by the way.
ED: And not in Baltimore, yet. Which is the odder truth?
PR: For the record, Rusty Greer is earning $7.4 million this year. Oh
yeah – he hasn’t played a single game. In the same amount of games,
Jeff Zimmerman has earned $4.5 million. I am willing to move to Texas
and have Ed smashed my knee with a hammer, if it will get me just a
million a year.
Second-Half Outlook
BB: Texas plays 32 games on the road
and 44 at home in the second half. That's a good thing. They have no
significant road trip ahead of them – their longest trip is seven
games.
ED: It looks like the two trips through Oakland and Anaheim - one in
late-July, one in mid-September - will be what decides the fate of the
Rangers. And if the Rangers are still in the race at the
end, a three game set at Seattle is a nice little present for Buck and
the boys.
BB: There's no reason why the guys who are hitting will stop – save Rod
Barajas and his .289 OBP. They'll score more runs playing those twelve
extra games at home, which is going to help, because…
BB: There's no way the Rangers can go anywhere without more pitching.
I'm not sure where it's going to come from – there's no pitching
available on the market. If anyone's going to take a chance on
Byung-Hyun Kim, it should be the Rangers – with Park already here, and
not having much to do, at least Kim'll have some sort of a support
network. The problem is that Kim needs to grow six arms to have enough
for the Rangers to have an even decent group of pitchers.
PR: Maybe they could get a group rate back to South Korea.
ED: Yeah, the Rangers need arms badly already and things will
just get worse. And it's not like they need one arm to get them
over the hump like most teams. The Rangers probably need at least
3 starters - and a reliever or two. Yeah, you can't like the
second half outlook if you're a Rangers fan.
Self-Mockery
(A Look Back At Our Preview)
BB: RA Dickey's pitch-to-contact
philosophy, believe it or not, didn't work. Rusty Greer has 0 ABs this
season. Rippa made fun of Michael Young for hacking at everything, but
he's got a…mediocre 28/49 BB/K ratio in 382 ABs. When you hit .332, you
can do that.
PR: Dickey still has no ligaments. And Bill said that the Rangers were
going to win 70 games. So he will be rooting for less than 21 wins the
rest of the way.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Record
at the All-Star Break (47-39)
First-Half
Review
BB: The A's have somehow played
really well despite nothing really going right for them. They signed
the core team hitter they wanted – Eric Chavez – and then he broke a
bone and was out for six weeks. Mark Ellis got hurt – not that he's a
huge loss – and Marco Sctuaro…didn't do such a great job of replacing
him (.281/.304/.379). Sorry about that Billy. How did the A's make it
up? A lot like the Rangers, everyone else stepped up.
ED: With SCRAP~!? Mmm, SCRAP~!
BB: Everyone on the A's has been hitting for power. A's starters and
their slugging percentages: Jermaine Dye (.505), Erubiel Durazo (.500),
Chavez (.492), Eric Byrnes (.477), Scott Hatteberg (.467), Damian
Miller (.467, somehow), Bobby Crosby (.452), Mark Kotsay (.427). Only
Scutaro hasn't hit for power.
PR: So dumping Ramon Hernandez and Terrence Long was a good thing? No –
that can’t be???? Now, they just need to keep Eric Karros out of the
lineup permanently.
BB: They're also sporting a .342 OBP, so basically, the A's hitting has
been fantastic this year for a team built around defense.
ED: What? The A's couldn't have been built for
defense! I heard all the announcer guys poo-poo'ing Moneyball
saying that the A's are merely a team of slow-foot sluggers who
practically play softball. Are you telling me that Hawk Harrelson
is wrong?
PR: Probably just drunk.
BB: The other huge Athletics problem has been the bullpen – as if Joe
Morgan decided that he was going to yell at the baseball gods to get
revenge on Billy for writing Moneyball. The Arthur Rhodes signing has
proven to be…ill-advised, as Rhodes has lost the closer gig and
basically gotten everyone in the organization angry. Chad Bradford has
been leaving the ball up and has a 5.29 ERA. Jim Mecir's screwball
stopped bothering people two years ago. Ricardo Rincon makes the A's
look more major-league – they have their own LOOGY – but he hasn't been
effective, either. The only A's reliever who's been relatively useful
is Justin Duchscherer, one of the interesting AAA starters that The
Handsomest stockpiles. He got this one in the (first) Carlos Pena
trade, and all he's done since is get hitters out. The A's decided to
go out and get a stopper, though, acquiring Octavio Dotel in the Carlos
Beltran trade for a couple of prospects. I'm personally worried about
Dotel's arm, but if he's healthy, Billy's got his two-inning guy.
ED: Dotel will learn to love the big ol' Mausoleum, sure
'nuff. I can see the spacious confines hiding his problems for at
least the rest of this season - unless his arm falls off.
PR: Kirk Saarloos has had a strong 13 innings so far so he might be the
answer. Of course, the longer the bullpen struggles, the longer we are
going to have to hear about how Billy might demanded that Rich Harden
get moved into the bullpen – which is just stupid. And yes, I am taking
glee in the poorness of Chris Hammond.
BB: The Big Three no longer exists. Barry Zito, as much as I love him,
and as much as this become the cool thing to do in the media, isn't on
the same level as Mark Mulder or Tim Hudson, or even Rich Harden.
Hudson doesn't strike that many guys out, but his G/F ratio is always
low, and he doesn't walk anyone. Zito's peripherals are similar to
Mulder's except for one – Zito's given up 17 homers in 111 innings.
Mulder's given up 9 in 131. Zito's HR per 9IP over his career: .75,
.94, .74, 1.4. You'd figure that he'll probably get that down some in
the second half, but it's still too high for an ace starter. If Billy
Beane can – and I think he will – he's going to deal Zito a year too
early instead of a year too late. And the media backlash won't be
pretty.
ED: But of course, Zito's hair will ALWAYS be pretty.
HAH! I am especially spooked by how close Mark Redman and Barry
Zito's numbers are - aside from Zito's much better K rate. Barry
Zito, meet your future.
PR: Yeah, I am not fantasy bittered about this at all.
Second-Half Outlook
BB: Presuming Chavez stays healthy
(and there's no reason to think otherwise), the A's offense should
remain in pretty high gear. Damian Miller's not going to slug .467
again, but replacing Mark McLemore with Chavez should make up for it.
Bobby Kielty's numbers should increase some, too. There'll be some
plugging of the pen, and Bradford should return to his usual form,
leading the A's ahead of the Rangers and into the AL West title. Right?
ED: I... Well, I'll take them over the Rangers, no problem.
The problem with winning the West is with the Angels of course.
I'd take the A's unless the Angels can swing the Big Mullet deal.
Self-Mockery
(A Look Back At Our Preview)
BB: I pimped Scutaro. I, for some
reason, hated on Bobby Crosby – despite drafting him for my fantasy
team way too early – and was wrong on all counts. Rippa duly noted that
the cool thing was to hate on Zito, and hated on he has been.
PR: The Athur Rhodes signing was also rightfully questioned. Poor
little post season.
ANAHEIM ANGELS
Record
at the All-Star Break (47-40)
First
Half Review
BB: The big thing with the Angels
was their four huge free agent signings. How did they go? Well – good
news first. Vladimir Guerrero has a pretty good shot of being the AL
MVP, hitting .345/.392/.591 with 77 RBIs. Jose Guillen, surprisingly,
has been the team's second best hitter, hitting .301/.368/.509 and
maybe – so far – showing last year wasn't a fluke.
ED: Vlad was no shock. Guillen is interesting in that I
can't figure out how he does it. He has no patience yet has
walked over 20 times. He has a huge hole in his swing yet hits
the crap out of the ball. He is a head case beyond belief yet
is...well, playing well. I guess his success is some sort of
baseball justice for the way that the Pirates screwed around with his
career ages ago. Or he sold his soul to the devil.
Whichever.
PR: I still love that Guillen got all pissed at his own pitchers for
not protecting him. Gene Autry would not approve of the retaliation.
BB: Kelvim Escobar's been the Angels best starter – which isn't bad
news with regards to the signing, but bad because Bartolo Colon has a
6.38 ERA and Nelly wouldn't even approve of the size of his ass. Their
second best has been Aaron Sele, which is just flat-out frightening.
ED: FEAR Sele and his angry dentist routine!
PR: The bullpen was fine but has its own issues. Brendan Donnelly
finally returned in late June after having his nose broken in spring
training (and the details of that are one of the scariest fluke
injuries you will hear. HALF his body’s blood!) Ramon Ortiz lost his
starters gig and demanded to be traded. He proved his worth by being
inconsistent. Troy Percival is not as dominate but is still better than
say Arthur Rhodes.
BB: Francisco Rodriguez. 47 innings pitched. 71 strikeouts. 17 walks.
29 hits. 1 home run. 1.34 ERA.
PR: And legally on the roster.
BB: The big first-half problem for the Angels has been injury – Tim
Salmon and Garret Anderson have missed significant time, while Troy
Glaus is out for the season. Anderson's replacement, Raul Mondesi
(awww….) also managed to hurt himself and he's out for the season.
Who's picked up the slack? Chone Figgins, to the tune of
.307/.364/.459. Adam Kennedy, David Eckstein, and Darin Erstad have all
been nice enough to keep their OPS within 30 points of each other, in
the .690-.720 range. That's an ugly group of white guy. Add Shane
Halter in and…that's just nasty.
ED: I still contest that Jeff DaVanon is 80's-era Celtic ugly.
And Adam Kennedy is a PIECE! Relatively.
PR: Now, you two are just making Casey Kotchman cry.
Second-Half Outlook
BB: They'll be healthier
offensively, which is nice, but what they need is their starting
pitching to turn around. I think it goes like this – if Jarrod
Washburn, John Lackey, and (especially) Colon have great second halves,
they win the division. If Colon has his normal second half, and
Washburn and Lackey just return to adequacy, they have a shot at the
Wild Card. If the former happens, though, there is serious potential
for a long, long winning streak.
ED: Yeah. I think the rest of the AL fears the Angels the most
because you can't get a good read on them. It's all about health
and starting pitching with them. A good dose of luck and the
Angels are the team to beat in the AL. And that's without going
into the possiblity of the Big Mullet landing there, too. If that
happens...Oof. The Yanks and Red Sox should be mere speedbumps
along the way.
BB: There will not be any concerns about a lack of scrap in Anaheim.
Just a hunch.
ED: Or ugly. Especially if the Big Mullet lands in Anaheim.
Self-Mockery
(A Look Back At Our Preview)
BB: We made fun of Jose Guillen a
lot. We even compared him to Raul Mondesi which is funny for many
reasons in hindsight. We nailed Bartolo Colon being questionable. As
far as I know, ABC has not signed off on the Latin Clubhouse show.
SEATTLE MARINERS
Record
at the All-Star Break (32-54)
First-Half
Review
BB: Awww…this is going to be fun.
ED: Oh, so beautiful.
BB: Let's start with what's been good so far this year. Dave Hansen's
got a .440 OBP in pinch-hitting duty. Eddie Guardado's been a very
effective reliever. Freddy Garcia had a great first half, and fetched a
pretty fantastic display of stupidity from Kenny Williams. My boy Clint
Nageotte got called up and made some hitters look stupid with that
slider of his. The wheels aren't all the way off Jamie Moyer yet. OK –
that's about it.
ED: And Dan Wilson is UNTOUCHABLE~!!! Whether Bavasi meant
that Wilson is so hideous that he is unclean for human consumption or
not is up for debate.
PR: The moose didn’t get injured this year as far as I know. And the
retractable roof still opens and closes properly.
BB: Now – I'm not going to say anyone is or isn't on steroids. But
let's look at Bret Boone's OPS trend over the last seven years: .782,
.726, .747, .950, .801, .901, .683. No, I can't understand why anyone
would accuse him of being on steroids. No sir.
ED: A little humility when juiced to the gills and having your career
year would have made people lay off you in your decline, you
bat-flippin' midget. As it is, I still hope a needle breaks off
in his butt and he goes into a 'roid rage so fierce it'll take all of
Shawn Kemp's illegitimate children in the greater Seattle area to take
him down . Not that IIIIIII am accusing Boone of 'roiding, mind
you.
PR: Well it’s not like Aaron could stop him. “OWWWW! MY KNEE!” And Ed,
do you really think all of Kemp’s children are located in downtown
Seattle. I think of them more as sleeper cells all across the country.
I mean, yeah, the Space Needle is a nice target but I think they would
like to keep their country options open. I probably went too far there.
*shrug*
BB: Everything else went wrong, too. Edgar Martinez talked last season
about how he wanted to retire before he was forced to…and is at a .702
OPS. John Olerud – maybe my favorite player – is a .354 OBP, good
defense at first, and nothing else anymore. Ichiro has hit .330 and has
a .400 slugging percentage.
PR: Hey, Ichiro has the ARM~!. What do you have Powder?
ED: But Tim McCarver told me ICHIRO~! can hit for power anytime
he wants to. Are you saying McCarver is an idiot? If not, I
will.
BB: Rich Aurilia managed to get himself waived.
ED: Aww, I remember fantasy-cutting him in the middle of last season
and Rippa asking me why I dumped Aurilia. If even IIIIII knew
Aurilia sucked then, in a more favorable park, does that mean that I am
smarter than Bill Bavasi? Frightening.
PR: HEY! it’s all about context. At the time, I was starting Royce
Clayton. I was asking because I needed to make sure I didn’t miss a
death announcement because anyone was better than Aurilia. I also still
laugh at back in the offseason where the Tigers were supposedly
choosing between Tejada and Aurilia. Choice C ended up being the best.
BB: Scott Spiezio hasn't hit and has, as far as I know, not re-launched
the Candlebox Army.
ED: Oh, it will happen. It must.
BB: Rafael Soriano alternately was terrible and blew out his arm. Gil
Meche got TOMKO'd. Ryan Franklin…has been as effective as Barry Zito.
Joel Pineiro has been kinda unlucky. Their best player this year has
been Randy Winn, and he's not even having his best season.
ED: Lou Piniella chuckles.
PR: That Kevin Jarvis experiment didn’t pan out either. And Shigetoshi
Hasegawa should consider taking the same flight that Kaz Susuki did.
Second-Half Outlook
BB: Much ugliness. The Mariners need
to try and trade everyone they have. Simple as that.
ED: The Mariners need to try to trade everyone they have to Kenny
Williams, you mean. Poor stupid Kenny.
Self-Mockery
(A Look Back At Our Preview)
BB: Um – if you haven't read it or
forgot about it – go read Ed's Candlebox joke. That's all you need to
do.
ED: Aww, but I picked them for 3rd in the division, so I am a
fool.