NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
ED:
Ed Agner
BB:
Bill Barnwell
PR:
Phil Rippa
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Record at the
All-Star Break (54-33)
First-Half
Overview
ED: Over the first quarter of the
season, the Cards were expectedly abysmal - poor pitching, anemic bats,
shaky defense. Then came the second quarter of the season and the
Cards took off - the starters turned out nicely, somehow keeping the
pen from being overexposed; the defense tightened up; and the offense,
lead by Scott Rolen's MVP-esque run, put the Cards ahead of the NL
Central pack.
PR: I wonder if Doug Nickle sits at
home and starts to scream at Fox Sports World “I was traded with
him!!!!! What about me?!?!?! What about Nickle?!?!?!?!?” And then
midnight comes, he flips over to Cinemax, pulls down his pants, slips
the noose around his neck and goes to town… Or not.
BB: Somehow I am thinking Doug
Nickle doesn’t have Cinemax.
ED: As great as Rolen has been, the
real key to the Cards surge has been the surprising emergence of the
Cardinals starting rotation. Every one of the Cards starting five
has turned in at least 9 Quality Starts and all have ERA's below the
National League average - numbers better than the more vaunted staff's
of Houston, Florida and Chicago Cubs, for what that's worth. The
pen has made no one forget about, say, the '90 Reds or '96 Yankees or
'02 Angels, but they have done decent work and this years model has
been far better than the flammable pen of '03 - mostly due to the work
of the starting staff in not allowing the pen to work too much.
BB: Who leads the Cardinals rotation
in ERA? That’s right – Jeff Suppan. I’m not bitter at all. No sir.
PR: There were definitely times were
the bullpen should have been used more. Morris hasn’t been pitching
that well day in and day out that he should be fourth in the NL in
Innings Pitched. And maybe letting Chris Carpenter toss over 115
pitches in a game TWICE! Isn’t the wisest course of action.
BB: Who would’ve ever thought that
people would ask Tony LaRussa to use his bullpen MORE? Note Kiko
Calero’s 27/6 K/BB ratio in 21 IP. But he’s not a closer. No sir.
ED: Offensively, the Cards, of
course, have been lead by Rolen's Mike Schmidt impersonation but there
are guys named Pujols, Edmonds and Renteria who've been pretty nifty
too. On the fringe of things, the Cards have even gotten nice
production from Reggie Sanders, Tony Womack, Marlon Anderson and a Ray
Lankford/Roger Cedeno/So Taguchi LF monster. So, are the Cards
for real then?
PR: Lankford/Cedeno/Taguchi sounds
like one of those classic WAR six mans. Of course, Hiroshi Itakura hits
better than Roger Cedeno.
BB: What are you talking about?
Second-Half
Outlook
ED: The Cardinals starting staff
leads the NL in Innings Pitched by a small margin over the Cubs.
Nifty stat, eh? Not if your rotation is made up of retreads,
castoffs and men far too familiar with Dr. Jobe. That grinding
noise you'll hear coming from the Midwest will be the shredding of bone
and flesh in the elbows of at least two of the Cards rotation.
Once that comes to pass, and considering the lack of depth in the Cards
minor league system (other than Adam Wainwright, maybe), it's gonna get
REALLLL ugly under the archway.
PR: I think the real ugly, real
quick will come when that Matt Morris for Kevin Millwood trade goes
through. NO-HITTERS~! Of course, I am a Matt Morris lover so this might
all be tainted. (I will mention the Placido Polanco portion in a
second.)
BB: Maybe they can get Bud Smith
back in the trade, too.
ED: And while the pen hasn't been
horrid, it really looks more as if it's merely getting good and dry in
the summer sun for the annual LaRussa late-summer reliever
bonfire. As far as a mid-season trade goes, well, two obstacles:
1) there aren't going to be many available arms worth having (aside
from the dream of Randy Johnson); and 2) the Cards farm system is
pretty barren - Yankees-level barren - so it really looks like Cards
fans will have to hope LaRussa is hit by a truck or something to keep
these good times going.
PR: Well someone had to pick up a
fifth catcher in 2002. So the minor league purge was justified.
BB: Yeah – but does the AAA team?
ED: But hey, the Cards COULD contend
with softball scores, right? Therein lies the best question about
the Cards. The Cards have maybe the best offense in the NL
Central but can they keep in the race with offense alone as the leaves
start to brown? Since the Cards have no games to play against the
Cubs in the second half, a 15-game stretch in late-August where they
play the Reds and Pirates AND a 10-game road stretch (and the Cards
have been road warriors this season) in late-September against
Milwaukee, Colorado and the enigmatic Astros, I can actually see the
Cards staying in the race in the second half with pretty much offense
alone - barring injury to a Rolen or Pujols or Renteria or Edmonds, of
course. But I can't see them holding off the Cubs unless Dusty
eats the arms of the rest of Chicago's rotation. And you can't
rule that out.
BB: Barring injury to one of those
four guys is a pretty strong assumption to make – especially Edmonds.
PR: Well they are real enough to
stay in playoff contention all year. I fear for the starters’ arms but
when they might be able to get enough offense to get along. I am sure
there will be a trade somewhere along the lines that we will all have
to scratch our heads at. I doubt Tony Womack is going to have another
half season that puts up .319/.364/.427 again.
BB: The Pokey/Tony Womack platoon at
2B would’ve absolutely crushed my spirit. Thank god for Mark Bellhorn.
Self-Mockery
(A Look Back At Our Preview)
ED: Our belief in LaRussa's love of
Bo Hart's SCRAPPINESS~! was misguided. Bill's mocking of the
Cards chances hurts us to our soul. We've all come up with a book
full of people coasting on their reputation since we mocked the Divine
Mullet.
PR: The proof that someone in the
Cardinals organization reads this site is in the fact that Bill called
LaRussa’s desperate need to have Polanco on the team. Oh yeah, that
trade will be sweet.
CHICAGO CUBS
Record at the
All-Star Break (47-40)
First-Half
Overview
ED: It's funny to hear Cubs fans
talk about how unlucky the Cubs have been in the injury department in
the first half of the season, as if they somehow couldn't see Prior and
Wood spending any time on the DL. Oh, it's not like Dusty's done
ALL the work in Dallas Greening them, but he sure hasn't babied them in
his tenure as Cubs manager. And still, as the Cubs have lost both
Prior and Wood for good parts of the first half, Cubs fans have cried
and cried about how unlucky they've been. So when Dusty comes at
Carlos Zambrano's shoulder with a hacksaw, it will be the goat's fault
too? When Dusty's found pounding on Matt Clement's elbow with a
tire iron it will be the work of, what - hateful White Sox fans?
Jeez! Grasp reality, the Cubs are paying the piper for inept
management - and Dusty's been the best manager the Cubs have had in my
lifetime.
PR: I am in a foul mood and I feel a
rant coming on about how fans play the injury card but I really really
don’t want to continue to focus this much attention to the Cubs. So all
I will say to Cubbies fans is that Angels fans are playing the world’s
tinniest violins for you.
BB: I thought we were just supposed
to feed the Cubs fans more beer. Isn’t that how it works?
ED: All the same, despite the
injur...err, "misfortune" to Prior and Wood and Sammy Sosa's hayfever
backsprain, the Cubs have stayed in the race and still are breathing
down the necks of the Cards in the NL Central. How? Well,
the Cubs weren't exactly only a two-pitcher team, ya know.
Zambrano and Clement have more than held their own; Greg Maddux has
been basically your league average pitcher so far - and there are worse
pitchers to have - Glendon Rusch has done nice work in pitching over
his talent level and Mark Prior seems to be rounding back into
form. The pen has been worse than league average and injured to
boot (boy, would Juan Cruz have been nice to have then), but LaTroy
Hawkins, Kyle Farnsworth and even the corpse of Kent Merker have held
things together for the most part.
BB: I think Hayfever Backsprain is
actually the name of Scott Spiezio’s first album. And are we supposed
to be back on the Glendon Rusch bandwagon now? Can’t we have a website
with people’s names and what the sabermetric opinion on them is, on
some glowing big board? I can just see someone rapidly pulling out the
“ALBATROSS” away from Pokey Reese’s name and replacing it with “GREEK
GOD OF FIELDING” when the Sox signed him.
PR: HEY! Mike Remlinger is back. And
he is IVY EDUCATED. He can be a calming presence in the bullpen,
regaling the youngsters of a time when you were a Cub, you had to play
all those pesky day games and there were none of those fancy dancy
music videos and coca-cola came in glass bottles and when Star Wars
came out the first time. Then he can read them John Knowles and all
will be right with the NL Central.
BB: Did he run into the fence or
something?
PR: Mike Remlnger or John Knowles?
ED: Offensively, the Cubs are now at
full strength and are exactly what you'd expect; not especially adept
at getting on base, little-to-no speed but they have the best SLG% in
the NL (thanks, mostly, to Moises Alou's pee-streaked first
half). Add in the fact that the Cubs don't make many errors and
you've got your normal Dusty Baker-type team. And now with the
infirmed...err, "unlucky" beginning to come around, can the Cubs still
take the division?
BB: You just had to remind me of the
pee nonsense, didn’t you? Couldn’t we just have left that information
to the pros? Stupid Jim Bouton breaking down the clubhouse walls.
Second-Half Outlook
ED: Well, Kerry Wood came back right
before the break. Figure in about 2-3 weeks of Wood shaking off the
rustiness - about the same time it took Prior to start making his
strides - and that puts the rotation at full strength come the
beginning of August. Closer Joe Borowski and LRP Mike Remlinger
seem to be about a week or two behind Wood's time-line, at best, making
the pen at full strength say, mid August. OK., so then the Cubs
will basically have a team at full strength - if everything goes right,
of course - for the last month and a half of the season, or so.
And along comes a stretch of schedule where the Cubs play two series
with Houston, a home and home with Florida and and a trip to Atlanta -
15 games of about 55 total - as the only competitive teams played until
the end of the season. So while the Cards, too, figure to have a
forgiving schedule, the Cubs should make note to keep the schedule
maker on their Christmas card list.
PR: THEY DON’T PLAY THE CARDINALS IN
SEPTEMBER!?!?!?!?!?! Well at least that is what ESPN has told me….
58732 times. And Ed isn’t even factoring in the idea that Houston might
have packaged it in by the time Chicago comes a calling. Of course, all
this means is that Cubs fans will blame Jesus this year when they don’t
win the World Series.
ED: But the million dollar question
- can the Cubs overtake the Cards? Certainly, it all depends on
how effective Wood will be and if Prior continues to round into form,
but I can't see why not - but these ARE the Cubs so who can be
sure?. The Cubs pitching will be better and the offense is...good
enough. A move for another arm or two in the pen and ending the
horrible mix of terrible SS play when/if Alex Gonzalez returns will be
a big help - not that getting Gonzalez back is, ya know, that great of
a thing.
PR: The leading contender is getting
Orlando Cabrera from the Expos but the rumors that Dusty might push for
Rich Aurilia now that the Mariners have bailed on him has me too
excited for words. The idea of Aurilia, Rey Ordonez, the Ramon Martinez
who isn’t Pedro’s brother and one of the Alex Gonzalezes being on the
same team is the stuff fantasy are based upon. Dusty might be pantsless
as I type this.
BB: Whose fantasy is this, though?
Meatloaf’s? Joe Morgan’s? I think, maybe in Joe Morgan’s fantasy, Billy
Beane gets flogged by Jack McKeon.
ED: Dusty finally figuring out the
whole vibe of the Strangeglove Walker/Grudzfhpwsiohfwejiogfinek platoon
won't hurt either. It all rides on the arms though, and with
Dusty that could get very-very-very-very-very ugly.
Self-Mockery
(A Look Back At Our Preview)
ED: Bill's mocking of the signings
of the ROLE PLAYAS~! that kept the Cubs in the race is Primer
worthy. Our hatred of the Cubs pen has been well-founded.
Our Juan Cruz love hurts our souls.
BB: B…Bbbuuttt…he’s so Pedro-y!
CINCINNATI REDS
Record at the
All-Star Break (47-41)
First-Half
Overview
ED: In the season preview I stated
that the best case scenario for the Reds is for Sean Casey, Griffey,
Jr. and Danny Graves to all be healthy and good so the Reds could
package them all off for prospects that could make the Reds good come
'06 or so. Lo and behold! The three were (mostly) healthy
and all made the All Star team.
PR: Of course, Casey and Griffey
each got put on the DL right before the All-Star break and got replaced
on the All-Star team. Poor little Griffey hamstring. At least he got
that pesky 500th home run out of the way.
ED: Unfortunately, the Reds made a
run at the division in May and early-June and, while they've faded
since, are hovering around the whole respectable range so as to make
the needed last stage of a fire sale virtually impossible in the eyes
of their fans. So far be it for Reds management to have the guts
and vision to do what's best for the team long-term - like NOT drafting
YET ANOTHER HS pitcher in the first round of the draft as if Jim Bowden
was still in charge - the Reds are now...well...screwed. I
realize I've been hard on the Reds but really, when you're ran like a
Kenny Williams franchise AND you have no luck, you deserve to be
abused.
BB: But look at the Marlins! Josh
Beckett! HS Pit…wait, you mean he’s the exception and NOT the rule? Oh.
ED: The first half has been a nice
little surprise but the Reds are fading already and management has made
no sort of motion that they even recognize that the Reds are not going
to go anywhere with this core. Really, it's not about the money
or competitive imbalance or anything like that, the Reds just don't
have a good nucleus of players. Pure and simple. Griffey
and Larkin are too old and fragile. Casey is a fat Mark
Grace. Danny Graves is fungible. Austin Kearns is made of
tissue paper. Adam Dunn is Rob Deer 2K4. Everyone else is
anonymous. Well, that's not true, Paul Wilson has done a
commendable job as an innings-eater. Oh, and the return of Gabe
White makes the Reds pen more sinister in certain ways.
Otherwise, ehh. The Reds will hold off the Pirates and Brewers,
but so what? Will that bring in the fans to a not-new-anymore
stadium? Can they even claim the town as their own over the
Bengals anymore? Does anyone even care?
BB: I am excited that we can still
make the Gabe White jokes. It increases my arsenal sevenfold. If anyone
ever called me a fat Mark Grace, by the way, I’d punch them in the
face. Just an FYI.
PR: Barry Larkin threatening to come
back for another year couldn’t have been good news for anyone. Then if
you thought that the resentment Ed had for Paul Konerko was bad,
multiple by about 48 for Sean Casey. Gabe White is home. And I am going
to try and pretend Ed didn’t just insult Adam Dunn.
BB: We’re gonna have a “Shut Up
Before I Jump On You!” situation here. I am just staying out of this.
Second-Half Outlook
ED: The closest the Reds will come
to the Fire Sale II is maybe moving Gabe White or Cory Lidle.
You're not really going to replenish your system doing that. I
dunno, I don't see the point of belaboring the obvious - the Reds need
a slap in the face and realize they AREN'T going to the playoffs this
year or any year in the immediate future. They need to move Casey
and Griffey and Graves. They won't do any of these things.
PR: Not moving Griffey during that
three month stretch where everyone was proclaiming him back might be
the biggest blunder that Dan O’Brien has made. And that covers miles
upon miles of turf.
ED: They will lose 85-90 games and
complain about the usual suspects playing in October. I may mail
them a copy of Moneyball or something. If I care. But I
likely won't.
PR: Problem is that anything under
90 games will be considered a success. And they have a shot of doing
that thanks to 15 games against the Pirates and Brewers in addition to
like another 10 games against AZ and CO.
Self-Mockery
(A Look Back At Our Preview)
ED: Phil's John Vander Wal
love...poor li'l snowman. Bill's Lofton-Griffey trade still
sounds reasonable to me. Otherwise, we nailed the Reds. Not
that it was hard work, but still.
BB: I am thinking if we nailed the
Reds, scrap would probably come out.
PR: Griffey with a partially torn
hamstring is still more palatable to me than Kenny Lofton.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Record at the
All-Star Break (45-41)
First-Half
Overview
ED: Well, they'll always have the
Richie Sexson trade to chuckle about. Overbay has been dandy,
Chris Capuano has been serviceable, when healthy, and Chad Moeller has
been...well, hopefully he's learning a lot from Bob Uecker. The
Brewers would love for Junior Spivey to get healthy real quick-like so
he can be moved. But otherwise the Brewers can't
complain about that move. Nor can they complain about Ben Sheets
turning the corner and becoming one of the best young right handers in
the league. Or Doug Davis finally making something of that promise a
number of teams saw in him over the years. Now if they wanted to
complain, they could curse themselves for that Podsebjkdfbjksdnik
contract they just foolishly gave up - a testament to the overvalued
view of scrappy white guys in the Midwest. On the whole though, the
Brewers have had a nice little first half to build on for the future
when the youngsters start coming through the system.
BB: Come on! They got cost
certainty…on a guy whose rights they own for the next five years
regardless. Whoops.
PR: Well if they are going to give
someone a ridiculous contract, it’s better that Podsenik gets it than
say... Ben Grieve. The Milwaukee offense has also been helped by the
fact that tape and Super Glue hold Geoff Jenkins together has worked.
Then Wes Helms has finally showed that getting away from Atlanta is a
good thing – even if it took him suffering one of the more comical
injuries of the first half. “Oh, look at the pretty rain!” I still
think that Danny Kolb is closer to being the future of PVCs than the
next Gagne, Rivera or Foulke but the Brew Crew will ride him as far as
they can this year. And I just realize this very moment that we are
witnessing Ben Sheets having the new cousin of the contract year... the
Olympic year. Maybe signing Jim Abbott and Ben McDonald for the rest of
the season would be a wise course of action.
Second-Half Outlook
ED: They'll hold off the Pirates and
probably scare the Reds a bit, but they're essentially in Phase 1A of a
yet another rebuilding effort. If they can fool a contender into
believing in Danny Kolb, that would be gravy. Otherwise the best
hope is that everyone stays healthy and that the kids down on the farm
start coming through. Ehh, at least there's hope. That's
more than you can say for the Reds and Pirates, anyway.
PR: Hmmm... maybe I should have kept
reading before writing my Kolb comment. Oh well. I think the Brewers
have finally found the plan. Now, the question becomes do they stick
with it. Of course, they are still stuck in the only six team division
which doesn’t really help for the quest for a division title.
BB: Danny Kolb = Bob Wickman. It’s
not that difficult of a translation.
Self-Mockery
(A Look Back At Our Preview)
ED: We learned that Prince Fielder
uses a Prince song as his at-bat music. Phil's PATRIOTIC LUV~! of
Ben Sheets not only puts him in good with Ashcroft, it also makes him
right. Phil also nails the Overbay love.
PR: If the Selig family stench
wasn’t all over this club I so would be a huge fan of them. The in-laws
would be giddy.
Houston Astros
Record at the
All-Star Break (44-44)
First-Half
Overview
ED: Opening Day, Jimy Williams lets
Oswalt pitch to Bonds late in the game with Bonds as the tying
run. Bonds homers. Season goes downhill. Andy
Pettitte has arm problems that puts him on the DL for most of the first
half. Astros trade struggling Richard Hidalgo to the Mets for
David Weathers. Hidalgo goes on a tear with the Mets, Weathers
continues to suck as an Astro. Astros pick up Carlos Beltran for
Closer Octavio Dotel and C stud prospect John Buck. Astros
continue to struggle. Roger Clemens starts All Star game at
Houston - Astros lone highlight in a disappointing season?
PR: Really we could have written
this recap as the following. “The Astros are currently behind the Reds
and Brewers.” That one statement shows you how quickly the rug got
pulled out from this club. It’s like how the Raiders became ancient
overnight (sorry Ed). The only reason Jimy Williams still has his job
is because they are hosting the all-star game. I figure he gets a call
to the owners office at about 8 am on Wednesday (or before you read
this)
BB: Rippa was off by like two hours.
Jimy is out and…Phil Garner is in. Oh boy. Poor Roy Oswalt. I guess
Morgan Ensberg finally starting to hit home runs is a good thing,
maybe.
Second-Half Outlook
ED: Well, things can't get much
worse for the 'Stros, right? Right? Hmm. A step in
the right direction would be to fire Jimy Williams for one, as his
abuse of the pen and baffling line-up decisions are as woeful
Deepindahearta as they were in the Land O' Chowda. That alone
might spare the season. Giving Jason Lane more of Craig Biggio's
time in LF would be of great help too. Letting Morgan Ensberg
just play third base without having to worry about fumbletastic Mike
Lamb taking his playing time would do wonders. Putting Brad
Ausmus to sleep wouldn't hurt a thing. All that and just allowing
the pitching staff to get healthy MIGHT get the Stros back in the
race. Even then, if all those things go according to plan, the
Stros still will really need some help with that pen. Can the
Stros make a comeback? Sure, they're not that far out of it, the
starters can get healthy and the offense is strong enough to keep them
afloat. The second half schedule is pretty key here, as the Stros
have a 13 game stretch in the second half of August against the
Phillies and Cubs, a 13 game stretch thereafter against the Reds and
Pirates, then 9 games against the Cards and Giants down the stretch
mixed in with series' against Milwaukee and Colorado to finish the
season. Obviously then, there won't be any clear sailing to the
end. I just don't see how they'll be able to catch the Cubs
considering the schedules, but I can see them being in the wild card
race - but only if Jimy gets the axe.
PR: Or they just trade all those flashy pieces they just added.
Self-Mockery
(A Look Back At Our Preview)
ED: Our pity for Morgan Ensberg
continues strong. Our Clemens doubt has been misguided so far,
our Pettitte doubt not so much. Bill nailed the Stros pen
problems from the get-go.
BB: Jeff Kent and Carl Everett still
have not discussed dinosaurs. As far as I know. Since they are both
alive. I think.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Record at the
All-Star Break (39-47)
First-Half
Overview
ED: Lloyd McClendon leads the free
world in trying to start fights with other managers. Craig Wilson
and Daryle Ward are finally getting playing time. Jack Wilson is
impersonating a real live major league hitter. Jose Mesa looks
like something the Pirates could get a prospect for. Jason
Kendall is still the most inexplicably overpaid catcher in
baseball. At least the Kris and Anna Benson show is amusing.
PR: The Pirates were the most
entertaining team in baseball during the first half of the season and
it had absolutely nothing to do with their performance on the field.
How McClendon’s head hasn’t exploded is beyond me. Of course, if he
ends up punching Tony LaRussa in the mug before season end I will
demand his immediate enshrinement in Cooperstown. The Raul Mondesi
story has all the makings of a Spike TV movie. Or maybe USA. At the
very least Telefutura. Kris Benson led to more hits for this site than
anyone with five fingers so I got no ill will with him. He so needs to
get traded to New York because I believe Anna would thrive there.
PR: On the field…. Randall Simon
still gets WAY too many at-bats. The Wilson boys and Ward (when he is
in the lineup – he only amassed 170 plate appearances in the first
half) are carrying what offense the team has. I am stunned that Ed made
no mention of Oliver Perez considering the fantasy lifeline that he has
tossed out. (5 wins, 3.24 ERA, .195 OAVG, 117 Ks, 1.14 WHIP. I
wonder if the Pittsburgh comically trades him away for Derek Lowe this
year or next. Maybe Hideo Nomo.
BB: Rob Mackowiak had that greatest
week of his life that left his numbers looking pretty adequate for a
utility infielder, too.
Second-Half Outlook
ED: The Pirates will still lose 100
games. But they will probably be able to move Benson and
Mesa. If they're lucky someone will gobble up Kendall too.
If they're really lucky, they'll figure out which one of the 7 zillion
2B/SS/3B prospects are worth their while and finally get that infield
in order. To live is to dream.
BB: For the Pirates, to live is an
undeniable, unfortunate necessity that hurts. A lot.
PR: They need to somehow Mondesi
Simon off the team. I just don’t they want to repeat any of their
spots. Maybe they could just designate him for assignment to a team
that doesn’t exist. Still, my favorite thing is that Dave Littlefield
is going to end shooting himself in the foot as he set the price so
high for Benson that no one is making any offers. It’s quotes like
“I’ve done enough deals now. Nothing is outrageous. All you have to do
is say no.” that make me so happy to be a baseball fan. I wonder if
Littlefield kept telling himself “nothing is outrageous” after having
his minor league picked clean in the Rule 5 draft.
Self-Mockery
(A Look Back At Our Preview)
ED: We called Raul Mondesi's
OPERATION SHUTDOWN~! move in April. LOVE US! Yes!
Love! Us! We rule!