The Veteran Presence 2005 Mrs. Urbina Memorial MLB
Preview: AL Central
MINNESOTA TWINS
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BB: The Twins have now come to represent organized
baseball’s response back to the Athletics and Moneyball¸
like some sort of pornography for the ubiquitious “baseball man” or the
mosaic of the FCC blocking Janet Jackson’s nipples. I’m not saying Joe Garagiola settles
into a hotel room after filing his eighteenth scouting report on Toe Nash and
finishes his night off with a bottle of gin from the hotel minibar and the soothing words of
the Twins Organizational Report in Baseball
America, but…ok, maybe I am saying that.
ED: I dunno. I don’t think Joe Jr. can ever love again
after trading Shea
Hillenbrand. He has betrayed himself and
his love of SCRAP~! How can the hands
that signed the approval on that deal be the same hands that…that…
BB: The Twins, much like the Athletics, spent two
seasons getting beaten up by the Yankees in the ALDS – unlike the Athletics, they
never actually came close to beating them, though. They would seem like a good
fit offensively as a team to challenge the Yankees – guys that put the ball in
play and don’t really walk that much – but it turns out the stuff that works
against the Indians and Royals doesn’t work so well when you get to the
stronger
PR: Just fielding a
team is usually enough to beat the Royals. Poor little Pieman.
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Performance Within American
League, 2004 |
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Win % Within Div. |
Win % Outside Div. |
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Yankees |
.644 |
.617 |
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Angels |
.551 |
.602 |
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Red
Sox |
.631 |
.602 |
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Twins |
.605 |
.514 |
BB: The Twins went 46-30 against the AL Central
last year, but only 35-33 against the other two divisions, a .514 winning
percentage. The Angels and the Red Sox winning percentage outside of their
division was .602; the Yankees, .617. I have no idea whether that correlates to
success in the playoffs or not (it’s an itty-bitty sample) but I know who I’d
want to bet on.
ED: I’d say
the biggest cause for concern would be putting up only a .605 Winning% within
the AL Central. I realize someone’s gotta win this
crappy division, but if you can’t put up a better Winning % against the Royals,
Tigers and White Sox, you really don’t deserve a playoff spot.
PR: I enjoy that Ed doesn’t include the team from
BB: Well, the White Sox deciding that scoring runs
in bunches is bad will help that runs against column a little bit.
ED: Who are you to doubt Kenny Williams? He is a baseball man! What are you? Huh?
BB: The Twins also saw fit to give Ron Gardenhire a
contract extension over the offseason.
Gardenhire is
my least favorite Mets utility infielder of the 80s, coming in just behind
Larry Bowa.
The top 10, by the way (in no particular order):
ED: Gardenhire
finishing behind Larry Bowa
in your heart? Did he touch you up when
you were a child or something? Did he
NOT touch you up when you were young? Do
I really want an answer to that?
BB: Are you asking me which one I’d rather have
molested me when I was a child, Ed? I think that’s really an improper question
but…well…Gardenhire’s gotta
have a softer caress than Bowa.
ED: Yeah, Gardenhire would
at least buy you a soda and try to molest you in the parking lot.
PR: Bowa would just make you tear your rotator cuff jerk…
well you know where I am going with this.
PR: Gardenhire is another of MLB’s anti-sabermetric trumpeters.
Each year he will babble about how he would rather have a guy strike out 200
times for every three run home run instead of walking because walking is the
sissy man’s way or something. Personally, I love Gardenhire because he will come up
with doozy
quotes like: (when talking about Luis Rivas)
“I just hope that little guy who
sits on his shoulder listens more than he did. That was Nanu. We saw Luis talking to him all
the time on the field. All
the time. That's a true story. We'd look at Luis, and he'd be
talking. And we just knew that Nanu was sitting there. Wasn't it Nanu?"
BB: OK – that explains it. I’ve always wondered
why Ron Gardenhire
always looked so goofy; it was just that the midget on HIS shoulder looks good
with Sun-In. And decides
that the Twins should keep their best power hitter in AAA every season.
And that the air conditioning needs to go on. And that the Vikings should
probably pick soon.
BB: The Twins organizationally continue to be
subject to the same afflictions that have prevented them from advancing in the
playoffs since their little run started – a surplus of talent in the outfield
that needs to be thinned out in order to increase the production from the
middle of the infield. These problems are propagated when the Twins trade for
an outfielder,
he has a great two months, and gets signed to a multi-year contract. And it’s
not as if the Twins stopped developing guys – seemingly new outfield prospects
pop out of their system each year. Last year, it was Lew Ford – the only Twin besides the
departed Corey Koskie
to post a decent walk rate – and Jason Kubel. Kubel decided to alleviate some of
the stress on Terry Ryan by suffering a crippling knee injury in the Arizona
Fall League that may threaten his career. That still does nothing for Mike
Ryan, Mike Restovich,
or Matt LeCroy,
all of whom really deserve starting outfielder jobs somewhere.
PR: Right about here is where Bill I debated the
merits of referencing those amazing Korean baseball cartoon thingies. Mainly
because the Lew
Ford praying for injury was spot on. I figured we could LINK EXCHANGE~! with our Korean
friends but I don’t think it would lead to Bill or Ed scoring any Korean booty.
Plus, we would then have to link to every single cartoon for every single team.
And that would lead to a lot more full frontal nudity that I am not sure I am
man enough to handle.
BB: Come on, you just had a kid; if you are man
enough for that, you should be man enough for Tony Batista. The Korean baseball
cartoons are far more perceptive about baseball (not to mention hilarious) than
pretty much anything I read all off-season and forget us – that guy deserves
the Korean booty. He rules.
ED: Ayup. I worry that Phil will ship him over and
replace me with him here at VP.
PR: I would like to believe that he is having his
way with young nubile American college girls on their semesters abroad. What
happens in
ED: No
organization represents their community better than the Twins, do they? I mean, there are a whooooole lotta pasty, Nordic guys in this
organization. I’m of the belief that
more organizations need to represent their communities like this.
PR: Wait a sec. I mean I know you have gotten used
to the Raiders representing
BB: I like this idea. It’s a lot like how MLS and
the WNBA distributed players to the places they were most closely related to
when the leagues started. Of course, Scott Spiezio already went to lead the
grunge revolution in
ED: Would
it be in bad taste to call for Terri Schiavo as a D-Ray? She’s in the community, to boot.
PR: Aww… she won’t be when this comes
out.
ED: Maybe I’m just writing this so it can lead to
an Eddie Vedder:
Seattle Mariner joke. Maybe I’m just
writing that because I want to make some barefoot hillbilly jokes about the
Braves or Reds or something. Maybe I
just really had nothing after I pointed out that the Twins have more Vikings
than the
BB: The Twins also have two bad organizational
habits. One is perpetually waiting for a player to develop, even when a better
solution is around the organization or easily acquirable. The 21st
century Twins have given thousands of at bats to Luis Rivas, Cristian Guzman,
and Jacque Jones, despite a staggering lack of development or production. Rivas
has never posted an OPS+ higher than 86 or lower than 79 in five seasons;
Guzman’s OPS+ runs 37, 67, 111, 80, 77, and 78; Jones appeared to break through
with a 125 OPS+ at age 27, but has come down since; his six seasons have
amounted to an OPS+ of…101.
PR: But Rivas is Nanu! Gardenhire even said so. And don’t
think I don’t have lingering fantasy bitterness towards Jacque Jones. I think
we might have found someone that Ron Dixon can out run.
BB: Get a flash of lightning behind him and Ron
Dixon will out run anyone,
I don’t care how fast they are. And I don’t care if Luis Rivas has Jobu on his
shoulder and his bats,
he’s not approaching respectability anytime soon.
ED: Bill
called Jacque Jones an ideal Giant in the ’04 Preview. But they’ve got the man with the
Urine-Stained Hands making outs for them now.
Ideal Jones matches at this point include
PR: Jones isn’t crazy enough nor can he play cover
2 enough to go to the Braves. And he is not white enough to play for the Cardinals.
The Mariners already have Randy Winn who might as well be Jacque Jones. The
Royals work. As do the Devil Rays. One of those teams will sign Alex Sanchez.
The other… will most likely trade for Bobby Higginson.
BB: So, of course, the Devil Rays already grabbed
Alex Sanchez. The Royals fit Bobby Higginson a lot better three years ago than
they do now; I am sure that the Handsomest GM almost found a way to get him on
the Royals by adding another team to the Weaver trade. Jacque Jones’ closest
comp in my head is Doug Glanville so…Cubs! He’d make a wonderful, wonderful Cub
next year.
ED: Well, he should be able to handle the heat,
anyway.
BB: The Twins’ decisions about when to bestow huge
contracts have hurt them as well. Torii Hunter got a big four-year deal after
his 2002 season, where he hit .289 with related gains in power. Without making
real progress in his walk rate, he’s now played 8 seasons with a career OPS+ of
…99.
PR: But… but… he took a home run away from Barry
Bonds!!! IN AN ALL-STAR GAME!!!! All while not on the juice. At least Hunter is
one athlete who plays defense in
BB: There are all kinds of ridiculous clauses in
Twin contracts, I’m sure. There’s gotta be some justification for the bizarreness that
goes on
BB: Shannon Stewart got his extension on the basis
of a .322 second half in 2003 and has since revealed himself to be the slightly
above-average player he was his entire career with the Blue Jays.
PR: Yet Prospectus
still turned on J.P.
BB: Hey – I think Keith Law is still crying in his
oxygen stat chamber over that. Give the guy a break.
BB: Joe Mays got a big four-year deal after a 2001
season where he had a fluky-as-anything BABIP. Since then, he’s pitched 225
innings with a 5.91 ERA.
ED: Hey, you started
this off by calling them the anti-Moneyball team.
There’s your proof.
BB: So this year’s Twins? They’re the most
talented team in this division, from 1-to-40. The players they lost over the
past season and offseason
will be replaced by a group of young players who can be expected to be an
improvement upon them. Those improvements will need to balance out the slipping
of the Twins’ older players and outliers last year.
ED: Well,
PR: Has anyone checked with Jack Morris about how
he feels towards all this? Kent Hrbek? Dan Gladden? Roy Smalley? Steve Lombardozzi? Les Straker? Juan Berenguer? George
Frazier? Heck – has anyone dialed Tom Kelly up? Has anyone even made sure Tom
Kelly isn’t meandering around the Metrodome asking where he could find Tom Brunansky?
BB: You know they send Mike Restovich over. “What? No, just say
your name is Tommie B. Yes, he demanded a white corner outfielder with a little
bit of pop who can’t field, and…yes, I know you fit that description Mikey, but he
wants to be comforted by someone who he remembers. Just take the money, read
him a story, turn the air conditioning on, and get out of there. Remember.
Tommie B. At all times.”
BB: Justin Morneau finally has a starting gig
penciled in at the beginning of a season, the one he should’ve had two seasons
ago – 1B,
PR: See, this is the problem with the Round Table
format. It gets hard to respond to sections that have the really good jokes
that you don’t wanna
get lost. Like I love Bill’s
BB: See – as we begin our magical journey through
meta-previewing – I have no problem succumbing to the funnies of Ed and Rippa
and not saying anything. I do have a problem when the comedy of baseball is too
much. Like the Rivas thing. What are we supposed to say to that? Or the Nationals?
Just in general! It’s too much.
PR: Ah, the NL East.
How I get goofy with thee.
BB: The Cristian Guzman era in
PR: Why couldn’t Linda Cropp have protested this deal?
Imagine what the DC Schools could have done with the money. (The right answer,
of course, is purchase more mercury thermometers.)
BB: Their first hope as a replacement is Jason
Bartlett, who has been pretty nifty the last two years in the minors, posting OBPs of .380 and
.415 with decent pop, including a .472 slugging percentage last year. He’s also
regarded as a plus shortstop defensively. That being said, I have a bad feeling
about the Twins actually giving him the job after spring training – I see him
having a bad spring and the Twins handing the job over to Nick Punto. Punto can also
take a walk but has all the power of an Amiga. And Juan Castro is Nick Punto without the
ability to take a walk.
PR: ESPN.com is probably being optimistic in
listing Punto
as having the job. Especially since Punto has played in exactly one spring training game as
of my writing this. And Castro is having a fantastic spring. What does this all
mean? That
BB: Castro has a nifty OPS of exactly 600 – 600! –
in 10 major
league seasons. Never mind that he couldn’t beat out Barry Larkin for the Reds
job last year (not that Larkin was going to lose it but it’s not like it was a
miscarriage of justice that Castro had to sit or anything)
ED: And?
It’s not like the Twins haven’t gone the last…20+ years without a decent
hitting SS anyway. That Juan Castro contract though…PEEEE-U.
How did they beat Jim Bowden to that?
BB: The one positional switch the Twins will
suffer from is Corey Koskie
vacating third base for Mike Cuddyer.
Cuddyer’s
been a prospect seemingly forever but has bounced from position to position,
going as far left on the defensive spectrum as shortstop and as far right as
right field. After filling in at second and third last year, he moves to third
full-time this year. I’m not too sanguine on his prospects – he basically has a
full season of major league at bats over his career where he’s hit
.257/.330/.433 – and when you combine that with likely defensive mediocrity,
that won’t fly in
PR: I will at least say that thank God they
finally changed the playing surface in the Metrodome because otherwise Cuddyer was a
dead man. (Of course, the roof is still white but that would take a Christmas
miracle.) I mean, the man bleeds enough from the nose already. He doesn’t need
bad hop choppers cracking him anywhere near his face. Though at least part of
me thinks that still would have been high comedy. The visual would have been
something along the lines of Bambi learning how to stand. (Crap – that was such
the week joke. I really wanted to make an Old Yeller or Where the Red Fern
Grows reference so I could make some sort of “Hopefully, the Twins won’t shoot Cuddyer because
he played with a diseased raccoon and got rabies” joke. I suck.) (Of course,
they might have replaced the surface LAST season. I am officially too tired and
too drunk to do the fact check. And honestly, you have to admit that Cuddyer foaming
at the moment might be slightly amusing. Ahh… who am I kidding. None of you
even know what Michael Cuddyer
looks like. Y’all suck. Burn
in hell.)
BB: Does he look like a
deer or something? Am I too young for this joke?
ED: He lost
me too, Bill. But Phil hasn’t slept
since last-June. Just humor him before
he goes a-shooting.
BB: The real upgrade is the one that was supposed
to happen last year – the crowning of Joe Mauer, King of Minnesota. Injuries
kept the überprospect
to 107 at bats in
ED: C’mon!
This is the AL Central. Keep pounding
that square peg until it fits into the round hole!
PR: The fewer Pat Borders at catcher appearances
the Twins have to deal with the better. Morneau wanting to catch is a
problem; not a solution. And I really believe in my heart of hearts that
BB: Again – I will make this complaint yearly
until it happens. If Major League Baseball is going to collect a billion
dollars from fantasy sites and companies in rights fees, that money needs to go
to good use. I DEMAND a Fantasy Player Discretionary (Slush) Fund. This means
that teams receive bonuses for doing things to improve the quality of fantasy
baseball. Does a team have a closer-by-committee? The Fantasy Baseball
Discretionary Fund would give them $3,000,000 to decide on a closer, announce
their choice, and give that closer 90% of all save opportunities for the rest
of the season, barring injury. That way, the team gets a little extra money
that outweighs the marginal risk of picking a closer, and fantasy players get
another option for saves. It has tons of possibilities – on all kinds of
scales. For $75,000, Carlos Beltran has to attempt to steal every time he gets
on base for one game. Or,
to do the opposite. For $150,000, Andy Pettite isn’t allowed to do his
pickoff move in a game. The Josh Phelps problem is where this came up in my
head first – that would’ve been the most expensive one of all. When he first
came up and was slugging .560 or so, the fund should’ve coughed up $6,000,000
to turn him into a catcher for 20 games. I am sure this will happen one day
because it simply has to.
ED: This may be the greatest thing ever written
at this site. We may as well stop now.
PR: "GREAT JOKE
BILL! FOZ WILL APPROVE!”
BB: The Twins will also get a huge boost in their
bullpen by getting a full season outside of the best relief pitching prospect
in baseball, Jesse Crain. Crain in the minors, 2003-04: 131 2/3
IP, 178 strikeouts, 42 walks. If Joe Nathan disappoints or gets hurt, the Twins
have his replacement ready; until then, he’ll be one of the best setup men in
baseball.
ED: You can’t replace a PVC~!!! Unpossible!
PR: Because I am constantly awake (it really is
bordering on the worst remake of A Clockwork Orange ever), I originally read
Bill’s comment as “Joe Namath
disappeared”. That got me to thinking who would the Feds question and in what
order. I came up with
PR: This seems like a good enough time to ask this
question: Does your name have to start with a J to be a member of the pitching
staff? Jesse Crain, Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, JC Romero, Johan Santana, Joe
Mays, J.D. Durbin... How is Jason Johnson not eating innings for this staff?
There ya
go. Johnson straight up for Jacque Jones works on so many levels.
BB: $25,000 for Brad Radke to change his name to
Jihad. Well – that won’t play well in the red states. Jed?
BB: Jed Radke, seemingly already on the downward
slope of his career, pulled out the best season of his career last year, going
11-8 but with a 3.43 ERA. His strikeout rate nearly jumped a batter per nine
innings last year – if he can keep his K/9 closer to 6 than 5, his ERA will stay
down. Radke, and the rest of the pitching staff, will be affected by who’s
playing on the left side of the infield as well. Having Morneau (an adequate defender at
first) as opposed to Doug Mientkiewicz
at first will also add a few extra hits to the ledger.
PR: Aww… the left side of the infield won’t be able to
catch all the home runs Radke gives up though.
BB: Well, if Mientkiewicz was there, he’d at
least make sure he got the balls that got hit out somehow. They might be worth
something someday, you know.
PR: Closer to the value of Jeff Nelson’s bone
chips than Luis Gonzalez’s chewed gum. That is just one man’s opinion, of
course.
BB: What’s left over? Just the best pitcher in the American League.
Johan Santana finally got 35 starts and, well…you can officially call it a
success. 265 strikeouts, 20 wins, and an AL Cy Young in his first full season as
a starting pitcher. The one thing to watch out for is the rise in innings
pitched – the last Twins pitcher to tack on 70 extra innings from one year to
the next was Joe Mays, and Mays…we already talked about him.
ED: Yeah, I
can see Santana having an off year. He
is at least 26 though, so it’s not quite the same as, say, putting a ton of
innings on Kerry Wood or Mark Prior and the Twins had been careful with him up
to last year so I wouldn’t panic about the workload. Even if he isn’t as good as last year, he’ll
still be the big difference between the Twins and the rest of the pack.
PR: It is pretty amazing to think that after Johan
Santana the next best pitcher in the division is… umm… Jeremy Bonderman, I
guess. Is it too late for me to get a try out with the Royals? I could be the
subject of a Rob and Rany
rant.
BB: As I say somewhere
else in this thing – you score a 93 with the Nationals. Sorry buddy.
ED: Hey, getting to the playoffs has to count for
something when you’re in a division when no one has the right to dream about
the World Series.
PR: Is that like
winning the Atlantic Division?
BB: At first I wasn’t sure whether you were
talking about basketball or hockey but then I realized both hockey’s lack of
stasis and the sad truth that, either way, the joke is just as topical.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
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