Making a Mockery of the 2000
NFL Draft
(by Bill Barnwell)
A couple
of months ago, I did a little feature looking at some of the 1999 Mock Drafts
of the NFL, pointing out that mock drafts shockingly weren’t very effective at
actually predicting what might happen in the real thing. That was fun, and
since the time when people are MOST likely to be interested in a mock draft is
a week after the real thing, I figured I would publish the next one, taking a
look at the 2000 NFL Draft.
The 2000
draft was pretty interesting; the Jets had four first rounders, while the Redskins had two of the first
three picks. God bless Charley Casserly.
The
format from this one is a little different from the 1999
review; I’m not going to be analyzing,
pick-by-pick, what eight or nine mock drafts might’ve said about the particular
pick. I will look at the comments of four legitimate professional football
experts from the CNNSI website: the un-credited CNNSI Mock Draft, Dr. Z, Trev Alberts, and Peter King (The
Big Caffeine’s post-draft grade for the team will be given in parentheses where
his comments come up). Of course, as easy as it is to make fun of writers with
five years of hindsight on my side, it’s even easier to make fun of NFL front
offices. Before we start, let’s get a quote from SI’s
Jack McCallum:
Attention, draftniks: Get a life. All you number-crunching geeks who create draft Web sites, all you newspaper-perusing know-it-alls who were glued to the endless draft telecast, all you T-shirt-wearing loyalists who feel that your team will suddenly re-invent itself as a winner just because Paul Tagliabue calls out a first and a last name ... forget it. It doesn't happen that way. Go back five years to the 1995 draft. Thirty-two names were called in the first round, and only half are still with the team that drafted them. And only a handful of those players (Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, Tony Boselli, Ty Law) have developed into true stars.
Attention Jack McCallum: You are a dick.
I’m also going to, say, harbor a
guess here: guy didn’t like Moneyball. Just a hunch.
|
1 |
Cleveland
Browns |
Courtney Brown,
DE, Penn State |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Dr. Z: “I heard one
comment that makes no sense to me: Brown, a quiet, shy guy, will have trouble
filling a leadership role but Arrington is well-suited for it. Rookies don't
lead veterans. They run coffee and donuts for them.” Trev Alberts: “It's all there -- the ability, the speed, the size --
but Brown sometimes disappeared in big games last season and had no impact. He's
either the best player in this draft or the biggest bust.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
A lot of the time, sportswriters
tend to over-reward the false machismo and aggressiveness that Jim Bouton describes so well in “Ball Four”; even more so,
they bury the guys who don’t show it. With Brown, they were right. Alberts’ comments were shockingly valid – but don’t
worry. He’ll make up for it in a few picks. Now |
|
2 |
Washington
Redskins |
#56, OLB, Penn
State |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Trev Alberts: “There's no doubt he's a playmaker, and his improbable
dive against Illinois has teams seeing "The next Lawrence Taylor." |
|
|
Time
Said: |
Was the dive really improbable? The
result, maybe, but is there something I don’t know about? Poor, poor Penn
State. LB Redskins has certainly revealed himself to
be one of the better linebackers in the league when healthy and/or
interested. Comically decided to not join the NFLPA until he realized that
the exclusive deal he signed to be the only NFL player featured in the sequel
to “Ten Yard Fight” wasn’t resulting in much fruit for the Arrington family. Has
also proven to be a leader by taking Sean Taylor under his wing. Oof… |
|
3 |
Washington
Redskins |
Chris Samuels,
OT, Alabama |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Dr. Z: “A no-brainer. Plug him into Andy Heck's spot on the left
side and keep him there as long as he can handle it.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
I’m not sure what “…as long as
he can handle it” is supposed to mean. How will he show that he couldn’t
handle it? Is Dr. Z expecting Samuels to gradually reach a point where he becomes
overwhelmed and unstable and then explodes? The Redskins pretty much nailed
these two picks. In order to ensure parity within the NFL and prevent a
dynasty from forming, the commissioner’s office instructed Daniel Snyder to
force his coaches into making awful decisions for the next five years. Or, as
Paulie Tags called it, “follow your instincts”. |
|
4 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
Peter Warrick,
WR, Florida State |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Trev Alberts: “The NFL Draft is rapidly approaching and I have one simple question: Why are general managers so caught up with workout stats? Just because a linebacker is 6-4 and runs a 4.5 in the 40, why does that make him a Top 5 pick? (Oh wait, that was me!) Here's my philosophy: Forget about numbers, forget about drafting for need, take the best athlete and he'll make an impact. So, with the Cleveland Browns' No. 1 pick, I select Peter Warrick. That's right, Warrick. Forget the reasons you've heard not to pick Warrick. Yes, I was there when
he ran his 4.6 for the scouts. Who cares? Did you see him play? He's the best playmaker to come out since Deion
Sanders. How about all those teams that passed on Jerry Rice 15 years ago? Something about being "a step slow?" Peter King (C): “I will say
this: Peter Warrick will be the offensive rookie of the year or my name is
Giovanni Carmazzi.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
Every time someone wants to
justify slotting a receiver who runs a slow 40 high, they get compared to
Jerry Rice. Here’s the thing, though: Jerry Rice is the exception, not the
rule. Every fat guy who plays baseball isn’t Babe Ruth. Every European
basketball player isn’t Dirk Nowitzki. Receivers
don’t NEED to run a fast 40 to be a very good receiver. But it sure helps.
And if you can’t, you better be good at most everything else. People have
given all kinds of reasons for Warrick’s failure:
poor quarterbacking, poor vision, injuries, terrorism, the
malaise of Cincinnati. He’s about to be cut, and in that vein, we can look to
Occam: Maybe he’s just not that good. And you were
doing so well, Trev… |
|
5 |
Baltimore
Ravens |
Jamal Lewis,
RB, Tennessee |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter
King (C): “Shaun Alexander (who went 19th) will be a better pro
than Jamal Lewis (fifth), by the way.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
People thought the Ravens
might trade this pick for Corey Dillon. It probably worked out better that
they didn’t in the long run; they won a Super Bowl anyway (stupid Jason Sehorn), and Dillon probably would’ve had to be cut when
the Ravens hit their spending limits a couple of years ago and had to rebuild.
On the other hand…Corey Dillon only has to worry about getting his groin
right. That’s hard to do behind bars. Lewis vs. Alexander is a pretty
interesting question. Alexander’s ran 1347 times for 5937 yards and 62 TD’s, averaging 4.4 ypc; Lewis
has 1239 carries for 5763 yards, but only 33 TD’s,
averaging 4.7 ypc. Lewis’ year off due to injury is
countered by Alexander spending most of 2000 backing up Ricky Watters. The thing that separates them?
Lewis has 110 catches and 1 TD over four years; Alexander, 173 and 10. |
|
6 |
Philadelphia
Eagles |
Corey Simon,
DT, Florida State |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter
King (C+): “Hope they know what they're doing with Corey Simon's
health. But I know Andy Reid. I'd be shocked if he makes a mistake here.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
I wonder if Peter King’s trust
for Andy Reid is like Joe Torre’s trust for
relievers. How far does his trust extend? Would he leave his daughter alone
in a room with Andy Reid? Can you imagine being hit on by Andy Reid? I think
I would probably be too flustered trying to say “No” so many different ways
at once that I would lock up and not even be able to respond. |
|
7 |
Arizona
Cardinals |
Thomas Jones,
RB, Virginia |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Dr. Z: “At one time their GM, Bob Ferguson, was a guy I used to
be able to talk to and trade information with. Now he plays it cute,
mentioning one guy, smoke-screening, picking another, etc.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
Poor Dr. Z. “But if you’re
honest and direct, and avoid making a flowery emotional speech when you break
the news, the boy will respect you for your frankness. And honestly, he’ll
appreciate the kind of straightforward manner in which you told him your
decision. Unless he’s a real jerk or a crybaby, you’ll remain friends…” Here’s a list of the Big East
running backs who went in the first round in the 1990’s: Maybe that should’ve been a
sign. |
|
8 |
Pittsburgh
Steelers |
Plaxico Burress, WR, Michigan State |
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|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (B+): “Steelers got two big receivers (Plaxico Burress and Danny Farmer) and I have a sneaking feeling that [Tee] Martin will be throwing to them in December, at the end of a lost Steelers season. I like Kevin Gilbride taking Martin under his wing.” Trev Alberts: “Cincy needs playmakers, so I'd sure use the No. 4 pick on Plaxico Burress. He's big, fast and nobody could cover him in college. Just imagine Akili Smith throwing to Burress and the Bengals lighting it up. I said imagine.” Dr. Z: “The best quote I heard was from an NFL coach who sat near him at the
NCAA basketball championship: "He didn't even stand up when they played
the Michigan State fight song. And you should have seen the way he was
dressed. School stuff, but it was all cut up, with all sorts of frilly things
on it." |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
|
Time
Said: |
Other people had the Steelers
going for Chad Pennington. I’m pretty sure everyone involved is happier with
how things really went. Except for maybe Kordell
Stewart. He is just lonely. And will punt for money. I am thinking that Tom
Coughlin doesn’t take too kindly to frill. Or fringe. The thought of Plaxico Burress playing a game
dressed like Ricky Morton makes me smile, though. It turned out Tee Martin,
taken in the fifth round, wasn’t actually a real NFL football player. It also
turned out Akili Smith wasn’t actually a real NFL
football player. I’m guessing that they were probably about just as good as
each other. Fortunately for the Steelers, it cost them a lot less to find
out. Also fortunately for the Steelers, they are not the Bengals
and haven’t ever had to be. Let’s play a Rob Neyer game. I’m gonna list two
receivers with their stats. You guess who they are.
Player 1 just got a huge,
multi-year contract from a team that didn’t read this chart. Player 2 is
going to be the fourth receiver for a team that gave him a one-year deal. Plaxico Burress and Kevin Johnson.
But – you know – Plaxico is always going to be
tall. Yes sir. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
9 |
Chicago Bears |
Brian Urlacher, ILB, New Mexico |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Trev Alberts: “In two years, Brian Urlacher will be among the best in the business. Urlacher is another impact guy who made plays from virtually every defensive position in his career.” Dr. Z: “I watched the Senior Bowl again a few days ago and saw a big, agile
guy (he's a converted safetyman) who moves well and has a nose for the ball.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
Definitely typed “Ron Mexico”
into the bar up there out of habit. I also kinda
like the term safetyman – it sounds old-timey (not
old-timey like, say, the baseball “rover”) but “safety”
in and of itself just sounds so…afterthoughtish,
like a backup plan. “Safety” is the positional equivalent of leftovers. “Safetyman”
is an occupation. |
|
10 |
Baltimore
Ravens |
Travis Taylor,
WR, Florida |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
|
|
|
Time
Said: |
Taylor rose up late in the
pre-draft process, to the point where most mock drafts I looked at had him
going late in the first round, if in the first round at all. Taylor was the
2nd WR from a Florida school taken in the top 10; the fourth one in the draft
fell to the third round; Laveraneus Coles. He wasn’t
even the second WR taken from FSU; Ron Dugans got
the honor. Cincinnati had the right region and position…but failed twice. For
Cincinnati, only wasting two picks isn’t that bad, I guess. |
|
11 |
New York Giants |
Ron Dayne, RB, Wisconsin |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (C): “I do think Dayne's a plodder, which would be okay here if he had a line to open a hole for him.” CNNSI: “Giants love large Big Ten running backs.” Dr. Z: “Some people have given them Shaun Alexander, the
Alabama tailback. One of my spies said he attended an Alexander workout and
the Giants scouts there went positively nuts over him. Said he looked like
the second coming of Marcus Allen. Never heard that comparison made before,
mainly because there's a vast difference in toughness. When I asked Jim Fassel, he said Dayne fitted
his purposes a lot better; in other words, he wanted a back he could hand the
ball to 20 to 25 times a game.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
As a Giants fan, I don’t know
if I can speak in a coherent and dignified manner about Ron Dayne, or, in particular, that Dr. Z comment. I will note that Shaun
Alexander has 37 20+ carry games in his career. Dayne
has 6. Yay toughness! Plodding is maybe the best
word to describe Ron Dayne in the English language.
Unfortunately, though, it doesn’t fully capture the ineptitude that marks his
rushing, the malaise for contact with which he blocks, the allergy to pigskin
he develops when a quarterback checks down and throws the ball in his
direction without first realizing his the folly of his ways. I don’t know
whether the word exists in a different language, or whether we will never be
able, as a people, to properly come together and truly understand the utter
horror it is having Ron Dayne on your football
team. Other places that love large
Big Ten running backs: Old Country Buffet…DeVry
Institute. |
|
12 |
New York Jets |
Shaun Ellis,
DE, Tennessee |
|
13 |
New York Jets |
John Abraham,
DE, South Carolina |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (C+): “The big question here is: Is Keyshawn Johnson for John Abraham and Anthony Becht a good trade? Didn't think you'd think it was.” Dr. Z: “Jon Gruden mentioned Abraham and LB Julian
Peterson, who had a big Senior Bowl. "Peterson
fits our need better right now," he said, "but Abraham's potential
excites me. I like him as a third-down rusher. I like his burst. He's a
project but he might be worth it." |
|
|
Time
Said: |
Packers wanted Ellis badly;
Jets picked him first and traded up a few picks to grab Abraham. Jets last few front seven
picks: Jonathan Vilna, Dewayne Robertson, Bryan Thomas, Ellis, Abraham, James
Farrior, Hugh Douglas, Marvin Jones, Jeff Lageman. The Jets have
actually been pretty fantastic drafters altogether over the last ten years. Do you think they became
really good at drafting just because they were afraid/sick of being heckled
by the fans at MSG? |
|
14 |
Green Bay
Packers |
Bubba Franks,
TE, Miami |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (B+): “Bubba Franks becomes the next Mark Chmura, for health and off-field reasons, immediately.” Dr. Z: “The only TE people think merits a first-round pick. Every TV announcer
belabors us with the importance of tight ends in an offense, but then they're
always picked lower down in the draft. This is a position in which the
size-speed equation, the workout performances are not the most accurate
gauges, I feel. Much more important is the ability to find the hole in the
zone on third down (Jay Novacek) and hold onto any
ball that hits your hands (again, Novacek) --
which, of course, will only be discovered when the games start for real.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
I like Dr. Z’s point a lot
except for his confusion of importance with value. It is important to have a
tight end in your offense, certainly. The reason they go in the late rounds –
or were – was because a replacement-level tight end is very easy to find.
Even easier to find than a replacement-level kicker – but we’ll get to that
later. Do you think Bubba Franks didn’t
really succeed in Green Bay cause he wasn’t Brett Favre’s fishing buddy? I also guess Mark Chmura’s “Not Guilty Comeback Tour” didn’t go over so
well. So sad. |
|
15 |
Denver Broncos |
Deltha O’Neal, CB, California |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (C): “Deltha O'Neal is a better returner
than corner; Denver needs him to be great at both jobs.” Dr. Z: “Many differences in opinion, as well, as to how people rate the top
three corners. Ahmed Plummer and Rashard Anderson
are the other two, and there's no consensus as to which one is better.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
I miss the old Broncos
jerseys. I didn’t see any Bengals games this year. Did O’Neal look at all
competent? He certainly never did as a Bronco. Peter King also wrote this: “Bill
Romanowski, those are Ian Gold's footsteps you're
feeling. And his hot breath on your neck.” I don’t think Andrea Kremer’s gonna be happy about that… |
|
16 |
San Francisco
49ers |
Julian
Peterson, LB, Michigan State |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (B): “The 49ers did
the right thing by passing on Pennington.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
If they take Pennington, they
get to take Braylon Edwards last weekend. People were pretty quiet on
Peterson – who has been very good. In the absence of make fun of related to
this pick, I’ll list my favorite mock draft prediction, taken from nfldraftcountdown.com’s final mock draft,
listing Aaron Rodgers as going #5 to the Buccaneers: “Don't listen to all of those who think Rodgers is going to freefall,
maybe as far as #24, if the Niners don't take him.
A guy simply doesn't go from a possible #1 overall pick to a late first
rounder in a matter of days for no reason whatsoever.” |
|
17 |
Oakland
Raiders |
Sebastian Janikowski, K, Florida State |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (A): “Janikowski is the best kicking weapon to come out of
college football, maybe ever. Assuming he can stay in America and stay out of
trouble, Janikowski will increase the Raiders'
touchbacks from 8 to about 50 this year, and he should soon be a great pro
field-goal man. Punter Shane Lechler was the best
in college football this year. Remember: special-teams plays account for
about 22 percent of the plays. Field position wins. Love these picks.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
There are no jokes to make
that haven’t been made a million times already. Except… You know how I was mentioning
how terrifying it would be to get hit on by Andy Reid before? Imagine how
terrifying it must be to get hit on by Sebastian Janikowski.
In much the same vein, I imagine I would try to run away so fast that I’d
trip and fall, like the co-ed running away from the slasher.
Is it a situation where if he comes within ten feet of you at the club, you
automatically have to throw away your drink? |
|
18 |
New York Jets |
Chad
Pennington, QB, Marshall |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
|
|
|
Time
Said: |
Most people had Pennington
going to the Steelers at #8. Chad’s great, but I’d be a little worried about
that seven-year contract he signed. He has played exactly 0 full NFL seasons
so far. If he doesn’t make it through 2006 healthy, I think it becomes
chronic. |
|
19 |
Seattle
Seahawks |
Shaun
Alexander, RB, Alabama |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (B+): “Four words:
Shaun Alexander, Chris McIntosh. To get Alexander at 19 -- he'll be a better
pro than Ron Dayne...” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
This was a slightly less
difficult statement to make for Peter King than the Lewis comparison, I am
guessing. I’ve seen a fair amount of
Seahawk games over the past couple of years and I’m very indecisive about
whether Maurice Morris could replace Shaun Alexander. There are games where
Morris looks like he’s just as good as Alexander, blowing through the line
and making guys miss in the secondary. There are also games, though, where
Morris looks totally in over his head, blowing assignments left and right. Also worth noting: Morris’ 5
biggest games in his career came against the ’02 Cardinals (two of them,
actually; they ranked 30th in the NFL in run defense that year), the ’03 Cardinals
(19th), the ’03 Steelers (13th), and ’04 49ers (20th). |
|
20 |
Detroit Lions |
Stockar McDougle, T, Oklahoma |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (C-): “Stockar McDougle and Aaron Gibson will be pulling this year for James Stewart one play, some linebacker will get leveled by the 748 pounds of padded beef, and he'll file a lawsuit claiming cruel and unusual punishment.” Dr. Z: “Al Groh says he likes McDougle's "mean
streak," which reminds me of a line by the old Jets defensive end, the
undersized Gerry Philbin, about his much-bigger
running mate, Verlon Biggs: "If I was as big
as Biggs, people would have to pay me to let them live."” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
Other mock drafts had the
Lions going for Chris McIntosh. That Peter King comment is great because you
know he looked at the Lions draft, couldn’t think of anything, went to the bathroom,
got on the scale, was unhappy with himself, thought about changing his diet,
went to the hotel gift shop, looked for a protein bar but got a candy bar
instead, went back up to his room, and realized he hadn’t written anything
about the Lions yet. So he spend eight seconds
adding up the two fat tackles weight and boom – you have a draft review. Does anyone remember the Al
Groh era in New York? It seems like it never happened; I’m not sure whether Al
Groh spent more time as a Jet than Mike Piazza did as a Marlin. |
|
21 |
Kansas City
Chiefs |
Sylvester
Morris, WR, Jackson State |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (C): “I like
Sylvester Morris. But I can't figure for the life of me why Carl Peterson,
who is a smart man, didn't go out and spend a couple of picks to save his
running game for years by dealing for Corey Dillon. Dumb, dumb, dumb.” Dr. Z: “Big wideouts are the blue-plate specials
this year. As one scout told me, "Most of your downfield catches are
made by big guys outpositioning little
cornerbacks." And then he added, "A small receiver gets even
smaller the farther he gets downfield." |
|
|
Time
Said: |
That scout quote just seems
like something Joe Morgan would say. I wonder how long it will take
for people to realize that running backs are fungible properties. I wonder whether
people think Priest Holmes suddenly became an incredible running back once he
left Baltimore. Someone has to notice these things besides me. Please. Morris would be a very rich
man right now if he’d been able to stay healthy and played in that offense.
Poor guy. |
|
22 |
Seattle
Seahawks |
Chris McIntosh,
T, Wisconsin |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
|
|
|
Time
Said: |
McIntosh, believe it or not,
actually selected for the apple jokes alone. Never developed due to neck
problems/not actually being good at football. Better than next pick, though. |
|
23 |
Carolina
Panthers |
Rashard Anderson, CB, Jackson
State |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (C-): “Top pick Rashard Anderson, a corner/safety, has hands of stone.
Not a good quality for an interceptor.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
Also not good qualities for an
interceptor: smoking crack rocks. Last seen on the Carmelo
Anthony DC “DON’T SNITCH!!!” video. Probably will not feature in any United
Way NFL commercials despite generously donating most of salary to fund. Who was in charge of the
Panthers then? John Nash? They sure found a way to pick crazy people. |
|
24 |
San Francisco
49ers |
Ahmed
Plummer, CB, Ohio State |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Dr. Z: “He won't be here, of course. He's too good to have lasted this long. Niners love him, but they also like Rashard
Anderson. They have to take a corner here.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
Well…he was there. Really only
a solid corner at best, until you compare to him to what surrounds him.
Compared to O’Neal and Anderson, he’s Darrell Green. Compared to Mike Rumph, he’s Rod Woodson. It’s all context,
people. |
|
25 |
Minnesota
Vikings |
Chris Hovan, DT, Boston College |
|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (D): “Knee-jerk reactions after the Jevon Kearse/Dimitrius Underwood fiasco of 12 months ago.” Dr. Z: “Defense all the way, said Dennis Green, and here were the names he
gave me, in order: Plummer, Ellis, Hovan, Abraham, Rashard Anderson, John Engelberger,
DT Cornelius Griffin of Alabama. Hovan,
a good, stout run-plugger, was the highest in that
bunch who was still available. And, of course, we
all know the Vikings' pick will be none of the above. That's the way it
always works out when things are too logical.” |
|
|
Time
Said: |
That’s actually a pretty
decent job of scouting by Dennis Green, all things considered. Was Chris Hovan REALLY that bad the last year or two? I mean – I am
not saying I am a big fan or anything. But he’s an ugly white guy in
Minnesota. I thought they had carte blanche? Is he gay? Did Chris Hovan sleep with Bob Mould??!??? |
|
26 |
Buffalo Bills |
Erik Flowers, DE,
Arizona State |
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|
|
Experts
Said: |
Peter King (B+): “Pick 89
overall, Corey Moore, will be one of those classic Bills picks (they always
get a very good player after the first round, every year), the kind of player
GMs will regret passing on.” |
|||||||||||||||||||
|
|
Time
Said: |
Nope. Bills noteworthy picks after
the first round, 1990’s:
|